Aston Villa vs Newcastle – 16 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 12:30 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa

0–0Full time

Newcastle

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Aston Villa were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Aston Villa had ? days of rest, Newcastle ? and had to travel 278 km.

Away travel278 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Aston Villa48%

Draw25%

Newcastle27%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.22

Aston Villa47%

Draw26%

Newcastle27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Aston Villa47%

Draw25%

Newcastle27%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.22

Aston Villa40%

Draw26%

Newcastle34%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.37

Aston Villa48%

Draw26%

Newcastle26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.14

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 124

Team strength

Aston Villa

Newcastle

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

83 AttackIn forecast 61

78 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Newcastle

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

90% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 15.80

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

40% On target shareContext 33%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

71% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 13%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

14.00 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.10 BlocksContext 3.10

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

81% Save rateContext 76%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

377 PassesContext 451

315 Accurate passesContext 380

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.02 Team ratingContext 7.13

8.60 FoulsContext 9.60

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Newcastle

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel278 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	278 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	9.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40M. Bizot(G)

12L. Digne 5T. Mings 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

24A. Onana 44B. Kamara

27M. Rogers 8Y. Tielemans 7J. McGinn

11O. Watkins

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

21V. Livramento 33D. Burn 5F. Schär 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

11H. Barnes 10A. Gordon 20A. Elanga

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Newcastle-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home No home games yet this season.

Newcastle · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Aston Villa wins1 draws5 Newcastle wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 30%

19 Apr 2025Aston Villa4–1Newcastle
26 Dec 2024Newcastle3–0Aston Villa
30 Jan 2024Aston Villa1–3Newcastle
12 Aug 2023Newcastle5–1Aston Villa
15 Apr 2023Aston Villa3–0Newcastle
29 Oct 2022Newcastle4–0Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.92
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Aston Villa	Newcastle	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.92
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Aston Villa	Newcastle	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	6.10
Corners conceded	5.00	5.40
Match total	10.33	11.50	13.00
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	2.50
Match total	4.20	4.10	3.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 3.00

Red cards0.10league 0.00

Cards 5+41%league 0%

Fouls22.8league 17.0

Penalties0.23league 0.00

Home wins43%league 100%

Aston Villa14 with this referee

Record5-3-6 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

L22 Apr 25A · Manchester City1–23
D30 Dec 24H · Brighton2–22
L3 Nov 24A · Tottenham1–40
W14 Sep 24H · Everton3–21
D27 Apr 24H · Chelsea2–23

Newcastle17 with this referee

Record6-7-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds2

D4 May 25A · Brighton1–11
L25 Nov 24H · West Ham0–21
D5 Oct 24A · Everton0–02
W17 Aug 24H · Southampton1–03
W16 Sep 23H · Brentford1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.