Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Aston Villa
2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
LWWWW
3–2Full time
Red Bull Salzburg
28th · 6 pts · 7 played
LWLLW
Aston Villa75.9%fair odds 1.32
Draw15.1%fair odds 6.60
Red Bull Salzburg8.9%fair odds 11.18
Expected goals2.69 – 0.85total 3.54
Likeliest score2–010.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Aston Villa ↓ · Red Bull Salzburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Aston Villa goals, columns Red Bull Salzburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%9.49
- 3–09.4%10.59
- 2–18.9%11.21
- 3–18.0%12.51
- 1–07.5%13.36
- 1–17.0%14.31
- 4–06.3%15.76
- 4–15.4%18.61
- 2–23.8%26.46
- 5–03.4%29.32
Winning margin
34.2%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 2.92
21.2%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 4.72
20.5%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 4.87
15.1%
Draw
fair 6.60
6.2%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 16.07
2.1%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 47.54
0.6%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 160.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
21%3
19%4
28%5+
Aston Villa goals
7%0
18%1
25%2
22%3
28%4+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 75.9% | 75.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 15.1% | 15.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 8.9% | 9.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 65.7% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.6% | 51.6% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 2.69 | 2.57 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 0.85 | 0.81 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Aston Villa win75.9%1.32
- Draw15.1%6.60
- Red Bull Salzburg win8.9%11.18
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw91.1%1.10
- Double chance Aston Villa or Red Bull Salzburg84.9%1.18
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw24.1%4.15
- Draw no bet Aston Villa89.5%1.12
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg10.5%9.48
Goals
- Over 0.596.7%1.03
- Over 1.587.1%1.15
- Over 2.568.6%1.46
- Over 3.547.1%2.12
- Over 4.528.1%3.56
- Under 1.512.9%7.77
- Under 2.531.4%3.18
- Under 3.552.9%1.89
Both teams to score
- Yes53.6%1.87
- No46.4%2.16
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- Aston Villa win and yes36.3%2.75
- Draw and yes11.9%8.42
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes5.4%18.47
Team goals
- Aston Villa over 0.593.2%1.07
- Aston Villa over 1.574.9%1.33
- Aston Villa over 2.550.3%1.99
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.557.1%1.75
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.520.8%4.80
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.55.4%18.38
- Aston Villa clean sheet42.9%2.33
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet6.8%14.70
- Aston Villa win to nil39.6%2.53
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil3.5%28.30
Handicap
- Aston Villa −1.555.4%1.81
- Aston Villa −2.534.2%2.92
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.544.6%2.24
- Red Bull Salzburg +2.565.8%1.52
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.52.7%36.70
- Aston Villa +1.597.3%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored126
Favourite won59.5%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.550
Over 2.5 called right54.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.5% | 43.8% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 45.1% | 47.2% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.7% | 78.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 126 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5433 | 0.5328 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.2% | 64.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 126 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.