Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Aston Villa
2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
LWWWW
3–2Full time
Red Bull Salzburg
28th · 6 pts · 7 played
LWLLW
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 46). Absences weigh more on Aston Villa. Aston Villa had 4.3 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 7 and had to travel 1,178 km.
Away travel1,178 kmRest days4.3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Aston Villa76%
Draw15%
Red Bull Salzburg9%
Aston Villa75%
Draw16%
Red Bull Salzburg9%
Aston Villa77%
Draw15%
Red Bull Salzburg8%
Aston Villa69%
Draw18%
Red Bull Salzburg13%
Aston Villa75%
Draw16%
Red Bull Salzburg9%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeRohit Saggi
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 25
Team strength
Aston VillaRed Bull Salzburg
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
83
AttackIn forecast
36
78
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRed Bull Salzburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaRed Bull Salzburg
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
100%
Scored inContext
57%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.29
ShotsContext
12.71
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
44%
On target shareContext
36%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
69%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.57
Shots allowedContext
16.57
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
3.33
BlocksContext
3.86
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
90%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
468
PassesContext
431
410
Accurate passesContext
357
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.33
FoulsContext
10.86
14.14
Fouls sufferedContext
9.43
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
13.40
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
40%
On target shareContext
42%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
63%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.20
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.30
BlocksContext
3.78
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
448
PassesContext
482
382
Accurate passesContext
393
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.60
FoulsContext
10.10
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,846 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,178 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Red Bull Salzburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,846 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 188.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
26L. Bogarde
53George Hemmings
24A. Onana
10E. Buendía
9H. Elliott
19J. Sancho
11O. Watkins
Red Bull Salzburg
Confirmed XI
1A. Schlager(G)
13F. Krätzig
44J. Schuster
23J. Gadou
37T. Trummer
5S. Diabaté
18M. Bidstrup
27Kerim Alajbegović
8S. Kitano
20E. Baidoo
19K. Konaté
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Red Bull Salzburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Red Bull Salzburg+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Red Bull Salzburg · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| FC Basel 1893 | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.86 | 3.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Aston Villa | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.86 | 3.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 43% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 43% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.17 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.00 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 3.14 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Aston Villa | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.30 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rohit Saggi 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 4.13
Red cards0.32league 0.21
Cards 5+56%league 42%
Fouls26.4league 24.2
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins52%league 51%
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
Red Bull SalzburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa7 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg7 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
8
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
6
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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