Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 42). Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, Wolves 8 and had to travel 19 km.
Away travel19 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Aston Villa73%
Draw17%
Wolves10%
Aston Villa71%
Draw18%
Wolves11%
Aston Villa73%
Draw17%
Wolves10%
Aston Villa66%
Draw20%
Wolves14%
Aston Villa71%
Draw18%
Wolves10%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 141
Team strength
Aston Villa
Wolves
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
83
AttackIn forecast
41
78
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaWolves
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.58
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
58%
Scored inContext
42%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.08
ShotsContext
9.42
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.27
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.18
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.58
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.42
BlocksContext
4.36
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
68%
Save rateContext
60%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
437
PassesContext
404
370
Accurate passesContext
326
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.64
10.08
FoulsContext
13.42
14.42
Fouls sufferedContext
9.42
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.80
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
41%
On target shareContext
33%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
59%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.33
BlocksContext
4.33
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
74%
Save rateContext
58%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
461
PassesContext
415
399
Accurate passesContext
336
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.22
FoulsContext
13.20
15.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Wolves
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel19 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 19 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
44B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
17D. Malen
Wolves
Confirmed XI
31S. Johnstone(G)
24Toti Gomes
12E. Agbadou
15Y. Mosquera
6D. Møller Wolfe
8João Gomes
7André
38J. Tchatchoua
27J. Bellegarde
9J. Strand Larsen
10J. Arias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Wolves-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Wolves · Away
0.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-5
- Scored
- 0.17
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Bournemouth | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Everton | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 30 · 2.10 per game | 1 of 30 · 0.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Aston Villa wins3 draws4 Wolves wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.10
Over 2.530%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 1 Feb 2025Wolves2–0Aston Villa
- 21 Sep 2024Aston Villa3–1Wolves
- 30 Mar 2024Aston Villa2–0Wolves
- 8 Oct 2023Wolves1–1Aston Villa
- 6 May 2023Wolves1–0Aston Villa
- 4 Jan 2023Aston Villa1–1Wolves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.83 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 42% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 58% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Aston Villa | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 6.45 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.45 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 10/12 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 9/12 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 7/12 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.58 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Aston Villa | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.33 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.30 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 141 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.73
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+37%league 42%
Fouls21.7league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins40%league 52%
Aston Villa10 with this referee
Record2-4-4
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds3
- D18 Jan 25A · Arsenal2–23
- D26 Oct 24H · Bournemouth1–17
- L10 Mar 24H · Tottenham0–41
- D12 Mar 23A · West Ham1–10
- W13 Nov 22A · Brighton2–17
Wolves9 with this referee
Record0-2-7
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25A · Newcastle0–14
- D29 Dec 24A · Tottenham2–22
- L20 Oct 24H · Manchester City1–24
- L15 Sep 24H · Newcastle1–23
- L19 May 24A · Liverpool0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa12 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Wolves12 games · scored 7 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
7
61-75
1
5
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
