Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel481 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Atalanta—%
Draw—%
AS Roma—%
Weather (Bergamo)
Forecast from 2 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Atalanta and AS Roma. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AS Roma
+1.08
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.19xG against1.11
-
Trend
Atalanta
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
AS Roma
5
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AS Roma
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Atalanta
−0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against1.63
-
Alert
Atalanta
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
AS Roma
+1.08
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.19xG against1.11
-
Trend
AS Roma
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Atalanta
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
AS Roma
5
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AS Roma
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Atalanta
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Atalanta
−0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.06xG against1.63
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AtalantaAS Roma
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
48
AttackIn forecast
72
45
DefenceIn forecast
75
21
Form indexContext
68
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaAS Roma
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.29
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.43
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
86%
Scored inContext
86%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
13.14
ShotsContext
18.14
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
35%
On target shareContext
33%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
12.86
60%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.57
18.00
Shots allowedContext
10.29
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
5.17
BlocksContext
2.60
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
76%
Save rateContext
82%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
475
PassesContext
526
420
Accurate passesContext
447
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.14
10.29
FoulsContext
11.86
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
8.57
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
2.19
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.10
ShotsContext
16.80
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
63%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.60
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.33
BlocksContext
2.57
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
78%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
472
PassesContext
542
414
Accurate passesContext
466
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.80
FoulsContext
12.70
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
LLLWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km898 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
AS Roma
WDDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel481 km789 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Jan | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 898 km | 789 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 2.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Last XI · not confirmed
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
47L. Bernasconi
23S. Kolašinac
31T. Kristensen
16R. Bellanova
8M. Pašalić
13Éderson
10L. Samardžić
11J. Rowe
90N. Krstović
17C. De Ketelaere
AS Roma
Last XI · not confirmed
95P. Gollini(G)
3K. Koulierakis
5O. Ndicka
26L. Balerdi
2D. Rensch
61N. Pisilli
15M. de Roon
77Emanuele Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora
18M. Soulé
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
AS Roma
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
AS Roma · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Atalanta wins2 draws2 AS Roma wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.80
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 5 Sep 2026AS Roma2–1Atalanta
- 18 Apr 2026AS Roma1–1Atalanta
- 3 Jan 2026Atalanta1–0AS Roma
- 12 May 2025Atalanta2–1AS Roma
- 2 Dec 2024AS Roma0–2Atalanta
- 12 May 2024Atalanta2–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 2.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.71 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Atalanta | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 7.71 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.57 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 1.57 | 3.71 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Atalanta | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.40 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Atalanta7 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
AS Roma7 games · scored 16 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
