Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atalanta57.3%fair odds 1.74
Draw23.1%fair odds 4.32
Cagliari19.5%fair odds 5.12
Expected goals1.91 – 1.03total 2.95
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cagliari
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atalanta ↓ · Cagliari → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atalanta goals, columns Cagliari goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.15
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 2–09.6%10.42
- 1–09.5%10.55
- 3–16.3%15.79
- 3–06.1%16.33
- 0–05.8%17.26
- 1–25.4%18.62
- 2–25.1%19.46
- 0–14.9%20.51
Winning margin
16.3%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 6.13
17.7%
Atalanta by 2
fair 5.64
23.3%
Atalanta by 1
fair 4.29
23.1%
Draw
fair 4.32
12.3%
Cagliari by 1
fair 8.10
5.2%
Cagliari by 2
fair 19.29
2.0%
Cagliari by 3+
fair 49.83
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Atalanta goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Cagliari goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 57.3% | 57.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Cagliari win | 19.5% | 19.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 57.6% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.5% | 56.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 1.91 | 1.94 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Cagliari | 1.03 | 1.06 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atalanta win57.3%1.74
- Draw23.1%4.32
- Cagliari win19.5%5.12
- Double chance Atalanta or draw80.5%1.24
- Double chance Atalanta or Cagliari76.9%1.30
- Double chance Cagliari or draw42.7%2.34
- Draw no bet Atalanta74.6%1.34
- Draw no bet Cagliari25.4%3.93
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.8%1.25
- Over 2.556.5%1.77
- Over 3.534.1%2.93
- Over 4.517.6%5.68
- Under 1.520.2%4.96
- Under 2.543.5%2.30
- Under 3.565.9%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes55.5%1.80
- No44.5%2.25
- Yes and over 2.544.6%2.24
- Atalanta win and yes27.6%3.63
- Draw and yes17.4%5.76
- Cagliari win and yes10.6%9.46
Team goals
- Atalanta over 0.585.2%1.17
- Atalanta over 1.557.0%1.75
- Atalanta over 2.530.0%3.33
- Cagliari over 0.564.5%1.55
- Cagliari over 1.527.7%3.61
- Cagliari over 2.58.7%11.52
- Atalanta clean sheet35.5%2.81
- Cagliari clean sheet14.8%6.78
- Atalanta win to nil29.7%3.36
- Cagliari win to nil9.0%11.16
Handicap
- Atalanta −1.534.0%2.94
- Atalanta −2.516.3%6.13
- Cagliari +1.566.0%1.52
- Cagliari +2.583.7%1.19
- Cagliari −1.57.2%13.91
- Atalanta +1.592.8%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored33
Favourite won63.6%
Avg chance given to result45.8%
1X2 Brier0.495
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 45.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 62.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 73.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 88.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 33 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5111 | 0.5279 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.7% | 43.4% |
| Favourite won | 60.9% | 60.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓AS Roma 2–1 Atalanta65·19·16
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 33 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.