Atalanta vs Cagliari – 12 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 12 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 8th · 6 pts · 3 played WWL

1–2Full time

Cagliari 9th · 6 pts · 3 played WLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Atalanta had 7 days of rest, Cagliari 5.1 and had to travel 720 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel720 kmRest days7 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Atalanta58%

Draw22%

Cagliari20%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.03

Atalanta64%

Draw20%

Cagliari15%

Expected goals 2.03 – 0.88

Atalanta57%

Draw22%

Cagliari20%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.03

Atalanta50%

Draw24%

Cagliari26%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.16

Atalanta58%

Draw22%

Cagliari20%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.06

Over 2.5 57% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

21°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 68%

Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 13

Team strength

Atalanta

Cagliari

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

48 AttackIn forecast 31

45 DefenceIn forecast 31

65 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Cagliari

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.33

0.52 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.28

+0.81 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 67%

8.67 ShotsContext 14.67

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

42% On target shareContext 32%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

54% Box shareContext 56%

15% ConversionContext 5%

— OffsidesContext 4.50

25.67 Shots allowedContext 17.67

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

5.67 BlocksContext 3.33

6.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

91% Save rateContext 83%

44% PossessionIn forecast 43%

464 PassesContext 410

401 Accurate passesContext 351

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.93

9.67 FoulsContext 11.67

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

0.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.40 ShotsContext 14.00

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

32% On target shareContext 31%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

63% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 7%

2.71 OffsidesContext 3.00

15.80 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.60 BlocksContext 2.80

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

82% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 44%

495 PassesContext 380

421 Accurate passesContext 315

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 9.30

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta WWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km961 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 6 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

L5 SepA · AS Roma1–20.7 xPts
W31 AugH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts
W23 AugH · Sassuolo2–12.1 xPts

Cagliari WLW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel720 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

W7 SepH · Lecce1–01.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Inter0–10.9 xPts
W22 AugA · Parma1–01.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 5 Sep	5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 7 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	720 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	961 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

4-3-3

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 42G. Scalvini 3K. Kossounou 16R. Bellanova

13Éderson 19F. Kessie 10L. Samardžić

11J. Rowe 9G. Scamacca 17C. De Ketelaere

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Cagliari Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 15J. Rodríguez 14A. Deiola 2Zé Pedro

10J. Fazzini 6H. Winks 4Alessandro Romano 8M. Adopo

70D. Maldini

31Paul Mendy

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Cagliari Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Cagliari-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Cagliari · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Atalanta wins1 draws3 Cagliari wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.13 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 13%

27 Apr 2026Cagliari3–2Atalanta
13 Dec 2025Atalanta2–1Cagliari
15 Feb 2025Atalanta0–0Cagliari
14 Dec 2024Cagliari0–1Atalanta
7 Apr 2024Cagliari2–1Atalanta
24 Sep 2023Atalanta2–0Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.67
Conceded per game	1.00	0.33
Match goals	2.33	1.00	2.95
Over 1.5	67%	0%
Over 2.5	67%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	33%	67%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

	Atalanta	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.30	2.00	2.95
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.67
Corners conceded	6.67	4.67
Match total	8.67	10.34	9.30
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	0.67	1.67
Opponent cards	0.00	1.33
Match total	0.67	3.00	3.39
Over 3.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/3

	Atalanta	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.40
Corners conceded	4.50	4.30
Match total	8.60	9.70	9.30
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.30
Opponent cards	0.90	1.20
Match total	2.20	2.50	3.39
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.23league 3.36

Red cards0.08league 0.03

Cards 5+8%league 21%

Fouls21.9league 22.7

Penalties0.15league 0.03

Home wins38%league 36%

Atalanta2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D25 Oct 25A · Cremonese1–11
D24 Aug 25H · Pisa1–13

Cagliari2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W17 May 26H · Torino2–11
D5 Oct 25A · Udinese1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.