Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atalanta55.7%fair odds 1.80
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.04
Fiorentina19.6%fair odds 5.10
Expected goals1.74 – 0.94total 2.68
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fiorentina
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atalanta ↓ · Fiorentina → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atalanta goals, columns Fiorentina goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.47
- 1–011.3%8.83
- 2–010.4%9.63
- 2–19.8%10.25
- 0–07.4%13.45
- 3–06.0%16.59
- 0–15.8%17.12
- 3–15.7%17.65
- 1–25.3%18.98
- 2–24.6%21.80
Winning margin
14.2%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 7.05
17.3%
Atalanta by 2
fair 5.77
24.1%
Atalanta by 1
fair 4.14
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.04
12.8%
Fiorentina by 1
fair 7.84
5.1%
Fiorentina by 2
fair 19.79
1.8%
Fiorentina by 3+
fair 56.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Atalanta goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Fiorentina goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 55.7% | 56.6% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 23.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Fiorentina win | 19.6% | 19.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 54.6% | -4.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.9% | 54.2% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 1.74 | 1.85 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Fiorentina | 0.94 | 1.01 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atalanta win55.7%1.80
- Draw24.8%4.04
- Fiorentina win19.6%5.10
- Double chance Atalanta or draw80.4%1.24
- Double chance Atalanta or Fiorentina75.2%1.33
- Double chance Fiorentina or draw44.3%2.26
- Draw no bet Atalanta74.0%1.35
- Draw no bet Fiorentina26.0%3.84
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.4%1.33
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.55
- Over 4.513.4%7.44
- Under 1.524.6%4.06
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes50.9%1.97
- No49.1%2.04
- Yes and over 2.539.1%2.56
- Atalanta win and yes24.0%4.16
- Draw and yes17.3%5.78
- Fiorentina win and yes9.5%10.52
Team goals
- Atalanta over 0.582.5%1.21
- Atalanta over 1.552.0%1.92
- Atalanta over 2.525.4%3.94
- Fiorentina over 0.560.9%1.64
- Fiorentina over 1.524.2%4.13
- Fiorentina over 2.57.0%14.36
- Atalanta clean sheet39.1%2.56
- Fiorentina clean sheet17.5%5.71
- Atalanta win to nil31.6%3.16
- Fiorentina win to nil10.1%9.92
Handicap
- Atalanta −1.531.5%3.17
- Atalanta −2.514.2%7.05
- Fiorentina +1.568.5%1.46
- Fiorentina +2.585.8%1.17
- Fiorentina −1.56.8%14.64
- Atalanta +1.593.2%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won47.2%
Avg chance given to result39.9%
1X2 Brier0.617
Over 2.5 called right54.3%
BTTS called right47.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 37.9% | 38.1% |
| 40–50% | 41 | 44.6% | 41.5% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 54.5% | 32.1% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 64.2% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 73.2% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 106 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6120 | 0.5919 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.7% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 46.2% | 47.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 106 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.