Atalanta vs Fiorentina – 30 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 30 · 17:00 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 13th · 13 pts · 12 played DDLLL

2–0Full time

Fiorentina 19th · 6 pts · 12 played DLLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 46). Atalanta had 7.9 days of rest, Fiorentina 8 and had to travel 247 km.

Away travel247 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atalanta56%

Draw25%

Fiorentina20%

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.94

Atalanta56%

Draw24%

Fiorentina20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Atalanta55%

Draw25%

Fiorentina20%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.92

Atalanta48%

Draw27%

Fiorentina25%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.05

Atalanta57%

Draw24%

Fiorentina20%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.01

Over 2.5 50% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 41

Team strength

Atalanta

Fiorentina

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

48 AttackIn forecast 42

45 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Fiorentina

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

75% Scored inContext 67%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

14.33 ShotsContext 11.25

4.36 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

28% On target shareContext 24%

8.92 Shots in the boxContext 6.92

63% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.25 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.08 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.92

2.82 BlocksContext 2.83

3.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

75% Save rateContext 66%

57% PossessionIn forecast 50%

501 PassesContext 376

433 Accurate passesContext 308

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.72

9.67 FoulsContext 13.58

9.17 Fouls sufferedContext 17.17

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.70 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

60% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.90 ShotsContext 11.50

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

26% On target shareContext 30%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

62% Box shareContext 62%

5% ConversionContext 10%

2.78 OffsidesContext 2.25

9.80 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.00 BlocksContext 3.33

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

74% Save rateContext 66%

57% PossessionIn forecast 50%

507 PassesContext 405

436 Accurate passesContext 335

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.50 FoulsContext 12.70

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 17.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,309 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel247 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov	8Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	247 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,309 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

19B. Djimsiti 4I. Hien 3K. Kossounou

77D. Zappacosta 15M. de Roon 13Éderson 16R. Bellanova

11A. Lookman 17C. De Ketelaere

9G. Scamacca

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-5-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 18Pablo Marí 5M. Pongračić

65F. Parisi 7S. Sohm 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora 2Dodô

91R. Piccoli 20M. Kean

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Fiorentina+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-1
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.17

Fiorentina · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Fiorentina
Napoli	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Como	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Juventus	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Torino	W 3–0 A	D 0–0 A
Lecce	W 4–1 H	L 0–1 H
Pisa	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Points	10 of 21 · 1.43 per game	3 of 21 · 0.43 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Atalanta wins1 draws5 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.63 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

30 Mar 2025Fiorentina1–0Atalanta
15 Sep 2024Atalanta3–2Fiorentina
2 Jun 2024Atalanta2–3Fiorentina
17 Sep 2023Fiorentina3–2Atalanta
17 Apr 2023Fiorentina1–1Atalanta
2 Oct 2022Atalanta1–0Fiorentina

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	0.83
Conceded per game	1.17	1.58
Match goals	2.33	2.42	2.68
Over 1.5	83%	75%
Over 2.5	33%	58%	50%
Over 3.5	17%	25%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	51%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	25%	33%
Games	12	12

	Atalanta	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.20	1.80
Match goals	2.40	2.70	2.68
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	6.18	4.58
Corners conceded	3.55	4.33
Match total	9.73	8.91	8.75
Over 8.5	55% 6/11	58% 7/12
Over 9.5	45% 5/11	58% 7/12
Over 10.5	36% 4/11	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.33
Opponent cards	1.25	2.08
Match total	2.92	4.41	4.03
Over 3.5	50% 6/12	67% 8/12
Over 4.5	0% 0/12	58% 7/12

	Atalanta	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.80
Corners conceded	3.00	3.50
Match total	8.80	8.30	8.75
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.80
Opponent cards	1.70	2.50
Match total	3.50	5.30	4.03
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.88league 3.91

Red cards0.34league 0.13

Cards 5+66%league 39%

Fouls23.7league 26.0

Penalties0.22league 0.31

Home wins51%league 38%

Atalanta3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W2 Sep 23H · Monza3–00
L4 Feb 23A · Sassuolo0–13
W15 Oct 22H · Sassuolo2–11

Fiorentina6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against3 · 1

W25 May 25A · Udinese3–22
L23 Dec 24H · Udinese1–22
W22 Sep 24H · Lazio2–13
W28 Apr 24H · Sassuolo5–12
L30 Oct 23A · Lazio0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.