Atalanta vs Inter – 28 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 28 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 9th · 22 pts · 16 played LWLWW

0–1Full time

Inter 3rd · 33 pts · 15 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were slight favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 67). Absences weigh more on Atalanta. Atalanta had 7 days of rest, Inter 14.1 and had to travel 45 km.

Away travel45 kmRest days7 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

Atalanta29%

Draw27%

Inter44%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.47

Atalanta30%

Draw27%

Inter43%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.49

Atalanta30%

Draw28%

Inter43%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.43

Atalanta23%

Draw26%

Inter51%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.65

Atalanta29%

Draw26%

Inter44%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.53

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 42

Team strength

Atalanta

Inter

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

48 AttackIn forecast 91

45 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Inter

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.27

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.93

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

81% Scored inContext 93%

25% Clean sheetsContext 47%

14.94 ShotsContext 17.20

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

31% On target shareContext 33%

9.69 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

65% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.08

10.19 Shots allowedContext 9.00

3.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

2.93 BlocksContext 3.18

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

75% Save rateContext 83%

58% PossessionIn forecast 60%

500 PassesContext 520

431 Accurate passesContext 452

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.88 Team ratingContext 7.07

10.50 FoulsContext 14.20

9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 16 and 15 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.90 ShotsContext 16.20

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

32% On target shareContext 36%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

67% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.78

10.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.89 BlocksContext 2.86

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

70% Save rateContext 82%

58% PossessionIn forecast 59%

505 PassesContext 529

434 Accurate passesContext 459

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.08

10.80 FoulsContext 12.70

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km309 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Inter

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel45 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec	14.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	45 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	309 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 4I. Hien 19B. Djimsiti

59N. Zalewski 15M. de Roon 13Éderson 77D. Zappacosta

8M. Pašalić 17C. De Ketelaere

9G. Scamacca

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 7P. Zieliński 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

9M. Thuram 10L. Martínez

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta-0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Inter+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.63points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-4-1
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.00

Inter · Away 2.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-2
Scored: 1.86
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Inter
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Verona	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 A
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 H
Napoli	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 A
Sassuolo	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 H
Udinese	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Cremonese	D 1–1 A	W 4–1 H
Lazio	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Como	D 1–1 H	W 4–0 H
Juventus	D 1–1 A	L 3–4 A
Torino	W 3–0 A	W 5–0 H
Pisa	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
Points	18 of 42 · 1.29 per game	30 of 42 · 2.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Atalanta wins2 draws6 Inter wins

Goals per game0.88 – 2.50 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 50%

16 Mar 2025Atalanta0–2Inter
30 Aug 2024Inter4–0Atalanta
28 Feb 2024Inter4–0Atalanta
4 Nov 2023Atalanta1–2Inter
27 May 2023Inter3–2Atalanta
13 Nov 2022Atalanta2–3Inter

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	2.27
Conceded per game	1.13	0.93
Match goals	2.38	3.20	2.63
Over 1.5	81%	87%
Over 2.5	38%	67%	49%
Over 3.5	19%	33%
Both teams scored	63%	47%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	47%
Failed to score	19%	7%
Games	16	15

	Atalanta	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	2.10
Conceded per game	1.30	0.70
Match goals	2.20	2.80	2.63
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	6.13	6.93
Corners conceded	3.93	3.00
Match total	10.06	9.93	8.83
Over 8.5	67% 10/15	73% 11/15
Over 9.5	47% 7/15	60% 9/15
Over 10.5	33% 5/15	47% 7/15
Cards
Cards	1.56	1.47
Opponent cards	1.50	1.67
Match total	3.06	3.14	4.07
Over 3.5	50% 8/16	27% 4/15
Over 4.5	0% 0/16	13% 2/15

	Atalanta	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	6.50
Corners conceded	4.20	3.20
Match total	8.80	9.70	8.83
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	1.60
Match total	2.90	3.20	4.07
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.31league 3.93

Red cards0.12league 0.16

Cards 5+40%league 40%

Fouls25.8league 26.0

Penalties0.31league 0.30

Home wins36%league 39%

Atalanta4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 2

D27 Apr 25H · Lecce1–11
W6 Dec 24H · AC Milan2–12
L3 Mar 24H · Bologna1–23
W9 Dec 23H · AC Milan3–21

Inter4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

W25 Aug 25H · Torino5–00
W11 May 25A · Torino2–03
W10 Feb 25H · Fiorentina2–14
D17 Mar 24H · Napoli1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.