Atalanta vs Napoli – 22 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 26 Sun, Feb 22 · 14:00 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 7th · 42 pts · 25 played DWDWW

2–1Full time

Napoli 3rd · 50 pts · 25 played WLWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Napoli. Atalanta had 7.9 days of rest, Napoli 6.8 and had to travel 655 km.

Away travel655 kmRest days7.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Atalanta44%

Draw27%

Napoli29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

Atalanta42%

Draw27%

Napoli31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Atalanta42%

Draw27%

Napoli31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.21

Atalanta37%

Draw27%

Napoli36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Atalanta45%

Draw26%

Napoli29%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.25

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 74

Team strength

Atalanta

Napoli

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 61

48 AttackIn forecast 61

45 DefenceIn forecast 70

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Napoli

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.52

0.84 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

80% Scored inContext 76%

40% Clean sheetsContext 36%

14.36 ShotsContext 12.84

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.83

31% On target shareContext 36%

9.36 Shots in the boxContext 8.28

64% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.56

11.76 Shots allowedContext 10.84

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.96

3.35 BlocksContext 3.21

3.48 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14

82% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 57%

468 PassesContext 531

397 Accurate passesContext 458

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.04 FoulsContext 12.08

10.44 Fouls sufferedContext 13.28

1.68 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.36

70% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.40 ShotsContext 12.60

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

33% On target shareContext 34%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

65% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.56 OffsidesContext 1.25

12.70 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.78 BlocksContext 3.30

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

91% Save rateContext 58%

53% PossessionIn forecast 59%

465 PassesContext 568

389 Accurate passesContext 496

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.82

11.60 FoulsContext 12.60

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km961 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Napoli

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel655 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Napoli
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Feb	6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	655 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	961 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 4I. Hien 42G. Scalvini

77D. Zappacosta 8M. Pašalić 15M. de Roon 16R. Bellanova

59N. Zalewski 7K. Sulemana

90N. Krstović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

4A. Buongiorno 5Juan Jesus 31S. Beukema

3Miguel Gutiérrez 68S. Lobotka 20E. Elmas 30P. Mazzocchi

27Alisson Santos 26A. Vergara

19R. Højlund

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Napoli Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+1.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Napoli-1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-2
Scored: 1.54
Conceded: 0.77

Napoli · Away 1.69points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 7-1-5
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Napoli
Lazio	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 A
Como	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Parma	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Pisa	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 3–2 H
Torino	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A	L 0–1 A
Bologna	W 2–0 A	L 0–2 A
AS Roma	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Inter	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 AW 2–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Verona	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 H
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A
Sassuolo	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Udinese	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Juventus	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Lecce	W 4–1 H	W 1–0 A
Points	42 of 72 · 1.75 per game	47 of 72 · 1.96 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Atalanta wins0 draws6 Napoli wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.89 Over 2.589% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%

22 Nov 2025Napoli3–1Atalanta
18 Jan 2025Atalanta2–3Napoli
3 Nov 2024Napoli0–3Atalanta
30 Mar 2024Napoli0–3Atalanta
25 Nov 2023Atalanta1–2Napoli
11 Mar 2023Napoli2–0Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.52
Conceded per game	0.84	1.00
Match goals	2.20	2.52	2.70
Over 1.5	76%	68%
Over 2.5	32%	52%	51%
Over 3.5	16%	32%
Both teams scored	48%	48%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	36%
Failed to score	20%	24%
Games	25	25

	Atalanta	Napoli	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	0.30	1.20
Match goals	1.80	2.80	2.70
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	70%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	4.61
Corners conceded	4.67	2.87
Match total	10.42	7.48	8.74
Over 8.5	71% 17/24	26% 6/23
Over 9.5	54% 13/24	17% 4/23
Over 10.5	42% 10/24	17% 4/23
Cards
Cards	1.76	1.48
Opponent cards	1.40	1.96
Match total	3.16	3.44	3.96
Over 3.5	44% 11/25	40% 10/25
Over 4.5	8% 2/25	16% 4/25

	Atalanta	Napoli	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.50
Corners conceded	5.22	2.30
Match total	9.89	6.80	8.74
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.50
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	3.50	3.30	3.96
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Chiffi 74 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.78

Red cards0.23league 0.20

Cards 5+36%league 37%

Fouls22.6league 25.4

Penalties0.19league 0.32

Home wins41%league 37%

Atalanta6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

L6 Apr 25H · Lazio0–11
W5 Oct 24H · Genoa5–10
D1 Oct 23H · Juventus0–01
L13 Nov 22H · Inter2–30
W18 Sep 22A · AS Roma1–07

Napoli5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 0

L9 Nov 25A · Bologna0–23
L28 Sep 25A · AC Milan1–20
W25 Jan 25H · Juventus2–12
W28 Feb 24A · Sassuolo6–10
W21 Jan 23A · Salernitana2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.