Atalanta vs Pisa – 24 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 24 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta

1–1Full time

Pisa

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were clear favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 14). Atalanta had ? days of rest, Pisa ? and had to travel 229 km.

Away travel229 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Atalanta80%

Draw14%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.60

Atalanta81%

Draw13%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.79 – 0.64

Atalanta80%

Draw14%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.59

Atalanta74%

Draw17%

Pisa9%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.67

Atalanta82%

Draw13%

Pisa6%

Expected goals 2.79 – 0.64

Over 2.5 62% Both score 42% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena

Cards per match 2.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Atalanta

Pisa

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

48 AttackIn forecast 15

45 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Pisa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Pisa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

1.54 xGVia Att/Def —

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext —

30% Clean sheetsContext —

12.40 ShotsContext —

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

27% On target shareContext —

9.88 Shots in the boxContext —

74% Box shareContext —

12% ConversionContext —

1.83 OffsidesContext —

11.90 Shots allowedContext —

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.33 BlocksContext —

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext —

74% Save rateContext —

53% PossessionIn forecast —

457 PassesContext —

378 Accurate passesContext —

83% Pass accuracyContext —

7.01 Team ratingContext —

11.20 FoulsContext —

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext —

1.60 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Pisa

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel229 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Pisa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	229 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

19B. Djimsiti 4I. Hien 42G. Scalvini

59N. Zalewski 8M. Pašalić 15M. de Roon 16R. Bellanova

70D. Maldini 17C. De Ketelaere

9G. Scamacca

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Pisa Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Šemper(G)

5S. Canestrelli 4A. Caracciolo 44D. Denoon

3S. Angori 20M. Aebischer 6M. Marin 15I. Touré

10M. Tramoni 32S. Moreo

9H. Meister

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Pisa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Pisa+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home No home games yet this season.

Pisa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Pisa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.21
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	62%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	42%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Atalanta	Pisa	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.21
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	62%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	42%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Pisa	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.60
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.40
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Atalanta	Pisa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	—
Corners conceded	4.56	—
Match total	10.89	—	6.60
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	—
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	—
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	—
Cards
Cards	1.70	—
Opponent cards	0.90	—
Match total	2.60	—	4.40
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	—
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	—

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.00league 4.33

Red cards0.00league 0.17

Cards 5+0%league 67%

Fouls31.0league 27.8

Penalties0.00league 0.00

Home wins100%league 33%

Atalanta

No previous matches with this referee.

Pisa

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.