Atalanta
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atalanta80.1%fair odds 1.25
Draw13.9%fair odds 7.17
Pisa5.9%fair odds 16.86
Expected goals2.61 – 0.60total 3.21
Likeliest score2–013.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Pisa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atalanta ↓ · Pisa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atalanta goals, columns Pisa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.8%7.25
- 3–012.0%8.33
- 1–010.2%9.77
- 2–18.2%12.16
- 4–07.8%12.76
- 3–17.2%13.97
- 1–16.6%15.07
- 4–14.7%21.41
- 0–04.4%22.81
- 5–04.1%24.45
Winning margin
36.7%
Atalanta by 3+
fair 2.72
22.5%
Atalanta by 2
fair 4.44
20.9%
Atalanta by 1
fair 4.79
13.9%
Draw
fair 7.17
4.5%
Pisa by 1
fair 22.14
1.2%
Pisa by 2
fair 85.18
0.2%
Pisa by 3+
fair 415.46
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Atalanta goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
Pisa goals
55%0
33%1
10%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta win | 80.1% | 81.5% | -1.4 pp |
| Draw | 13.9% | 12.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Pisa win | 5.9% | 5.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 66.8% | -4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 41.9% | 44.9% | -2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Atalanta | 2.61 | 2.79 | -0.18 |
| Expected goals Pisa | 0.60 | 0.64 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atalanta win80.1%1.25
- Draw13.9%7.17
- Pisa win5.9%16.86
- Double chance Atalanta or draw94.1%1.06
- Double chance Atalanta or Pisa86.1%1.16
- Double chance Pisa or draw19.9%5.03
- Draw no bet Atalanta93.1%1.07
- Draw no bet Pisa6.9%14.51
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.583.3%1.20
- Over 2.562.1%1.61
- Over 3.539.9%2.51
- Over 4.522.0%4.54
- Under 1.516.7%5.99
- Under 2.537.9%2.64
- Under 3.560.1%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes41.9%2.38
- No58.1%1.72
- Yes and over 2.535.3%2.83
- Atalanta win and yes29.4%3.40
- Draw and yes9.6%10.46
- Pisa win and yes3.0%33.76
Team goals
- Atalanta over 0.592.6%1.08
- Atalanta over 1.573.5%1.36
- Atalanta over 2.548.4%2.07
- Pisa over 0.544.9%2.23
- Pisa over 1.512.1%8.29
- Pisa over 2.52.3%43.97
- Atalanta clean sheet55.1%1.82
- Pisa clean sheet7.4%13.60
- Atalanta win to nil50.7%1.97
- Pisa win to nil3.0%33.69
Handicap
- Atalanta −1.559.2%1.69
- Atalanta −2.536.7%2.72
- Pisa +1.540.8%2.45
- Pisa +2.563.3%1.58
- Pisa −1.51.4%70.69
- Atalanta +1.598.6%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored6
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result35.0%
1X2 Brier0.722
Over 2.5 called right83.3%
BTTS called right33.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 2 | 43.9% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 51.7% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.6% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 74.6% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 6 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 6 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.