Atalanta vs Sassuolo – 9 Nov 2025

Serie A Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 11:30 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 12th · 13 pts · 10 played DDDDL

0–3Full time

Sassuolo 13th · 13 pts · 10 played WDLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were clear favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 23). Atalanta had 7.9 days of rest, Sassuolo 5.8 and had to travel 134 km.

Away travel134 kmRest days7.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 3

Atalanta71%

Draw19%

Sassuolo10%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.71

Atalanta73%

Draw18%

Sassuolo10%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.76

Atalanta71%

Draw19%

Sassuolo10%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.70

Atalanta64%

Draw22%

Sassuolo14%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.80

Atalanta72%

Draw18%

Sassuolo10%

Expected goals 2.37 – 0.77

Over 2.5 56% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

RefereeValerio Crezzini

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 5

Team strength

Atalanta

Sassuolo

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

48 AttackIn forecast 41

45 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Sassuolo

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.50 ShotsContext 10.10

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

30% On target shareContext 35%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

65% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.40 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.11 BlocksContext 3.10

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

84% Save rateContext 77%

56% PossessionIn forecast 47%

487 PassesContext 385

420 Accurate passesContext 315

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.60 FoulsContext 13.50

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 10.10

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

26% On target shareContext 35%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

65% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 11%

3.17 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.10 Shots allowedContext 13.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.22 BlocksContext 3.10

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

87% Save rateContext 77%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

476 PassesContext 385

408 Accurate passesContext 315

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.20 FoulsContext 13.50

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km559 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sassuolo

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel134 km1,241 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Nov	5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	134 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	559 km	1,241 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.3	15.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 4I. Hien 3K. Kossounou

77D. Zappacosta 8M. Pašalić 13Éderson 16R. Bellanova

11A. Lookman 10L. Samardžić

90N. Krstović

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

5F. Candé 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

42K. Thorstvedt 18N. Matić 90I. Koné

20A. Fadera 99A. Pinamonti 10D. Berardi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sassuolo+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-0
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 0.80

Sassuolo · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Sassuolo
Udinese	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Cremonese	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 A
Lazio	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Lecce	W 4–1 H	D 0–0 A
Points	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Atalanta wins0 draws2 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.83 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 17%

17 Feb 2024Atalanta3–0Sassuolo
20 Aug 2023Sassuolo0–2Atalanta
4 Feb 2023Sassuolo1–0Atalanta
15 Oct 2022Atalanta2–1Sassuolo
10 Apr 2022Sassuolo2–1Atalanta
21 Sep 2021Atalanta2–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	2.10	2.30	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	2.10	2.30	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.78	3.30
Corners conceded	3.67	5.10
Match total	10.45	8.40	8.95
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.70
Opponent cards	1.20	2.40
Match total	3.00	5.10	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	3.30
Corners conceded	3.78	5.10
Match total	10.11	8.40	8.95
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	1.40	2.40
Match total	3.50	5.10	4.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Valerio Crezzini 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.90

Red cards0.00league 0.12

Cards 5+20%league 39%

Fouls25.8league 25.9

Penalties0.20league 0.29

Home wins60%league 36%

Atalanta

No previous matches with this referee.

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Oct 25A · Lecce0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.