Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid – 6 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 6 · 20:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 8th · 20 pts · 15 played LWLWL

1–0Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 31 pts · 15 played WWWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 62). Athletic Club had 3.1 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 4 and had to travel 323 km.

Away travel323 kmRest days3.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3

Athletic Club26%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.51

Athletic Club27%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

Athletic Club26%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.49

Athletic Club21%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.70

Athletic Club27%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.60

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.52
Matches 31

Team strength

Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 85

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

51 AttackIn forecast 82

64 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Atletico Madrid

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.87

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.93

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

53% Scored inContext 100%

27% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 13.20

4.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.73

32% On target shareContext 43%

8.77 Shots in the boxContext 9.07

66% Box shareContext 69%

7% ConversionContext 14%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.54

9.67 Shots allowedContext 9.87

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

2.83 BlocksContext 2.38

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

70% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

404 PassesContext 504

329 Accurate passesContext 435

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.13 FoulsContext 10.80

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.53

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

40% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.90 ShotsContext 13.50

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

33% On target shareContext 39%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

67% Box shareContext 70%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.29

10.10 Shots allowedContext 12.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.22 BlocksContext 2.90

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

69% Save rateContext 71%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

353 PassesContext 480

273 Accurate passesContext 411

77% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.60 FoulsContext 10.30

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km944 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel323 km1,034 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Dec	4La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	323 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	944 km	1,034 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	6.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 12Jesús Areso

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

10Nico Williams 8Oihan Sancet 7Álex Berenguer

11Gorka Guruzeta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 15C. Lenglet 18Marc Pubill 16N. Molina

8Pablo Barrios

23N. González 11T. Almada 4C. Gallagher 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Atletico Madrid+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.63points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.13

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-2
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	W 5–2 H
Levante	W 2–0 A	W 3–1 H
Barcelona	L 0–4 A	L 1–3 A
Oviedo	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Getafe	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Elche	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Villarreal	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Alaves	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Real Betis	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 H
Sevilla	W 3–2 H	W 3–0 H
Points	19 of 36 · 1.58 per game	27 of 36 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Athletic Club wins1 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.00 Over 2.530% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 50%

1 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Athletic Club
31 Aug 2024Athletic Club0–1Atletico Madrid
27 Apr 2024Atletico Madrid3–1Athletic Club
16 Dec 2023Athletic Club2–0Atletico Madrid
19 Feb 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Athletic Club
15 Oct 2022Athletic Club0–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	1.87
Conceded per game	1.33	0.93
Match goals	2.27	2.80	2.58
Over 1.5	60%	87%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	20%	27%
Both teams scored	33%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	27%	40%
Failed to score	47%	0%
Games	15	15

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.20
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	2.20	3.10	2.58
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.27	7.13
Corners conceded	4.40	3.13
Match total	9.67	10.26	9.76
Over 8.5	67% 10/15	73% 11/15
Over 9.5	53% 8/15	40% 6/15
Over 10.5	47% 7/15	40% 6/15
Cards
Cards	1.87	2.07
Opponent cards	2.13	2.27
Match total	4.00	4.34	4.30
Over 3.5	47% 7/15	67% 10/15
Over 4.5	27% 4/15	40% 6/15

	Athletic Club	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	7.40
Corners conceded	4.30	3.30
Match total	8.60	10.70	9.76
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	3.30	3.20	4.30
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.06league 4.05

Red cards0.35league 0.27

Cards 5+65%league 45%

Fouls24.9league 24.6

Penalties0.52league 0.34

Home wins52%league 47%

Athletic Club3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

W18 May 25A · Valencia1–01
W16 Mar 24H · Alaves2–02
W22 Sep 23A · Alaves2–02

Atletico Madrid1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W29 Oct 23H · Alaves2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.