Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Athletic Club
8th · 20 pts · 15 played
LWLWL
1–0Full time
Atletico Madrid
4th · 31 pts · 15 played
WWWWL
Athletic Club26.1%fair odds 3.82
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.70
Atletico Madrid46.8%fair odds 2.14
Expected goals1.07 – 1.51total 2.58
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Athletic Club ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Athletic Club goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.76
- 0–110.8%9.26
- 1–29.3%10.81
- 0–28.7%11.55
- 0–08.2%12.17
- 1–07.4%13.44
- 2–16.5%15.29
- 2–24.9%20.22
- 1–34.7%21.44
- 0–34.4%22.92
Winning margin
3.0%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 33.62
7.2%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 13.93
16.0%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 6.25
27.0%
Draw
fair 3.70
22.9%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.37
14.4%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 6.96
9.5%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 10.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Athletic Club goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 26.1% | 26.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 46.8% | 47.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 51.8% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.8% | 55.1% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.07 | 1.15 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.51 | 1.60 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Athletic Club win26.1%3.82
- Draw27.0%3.70
- Atletico Madrid win46.8%2.14
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw53.2%1.88
- Double chance Athletic Club or Atletico Madrid73.0%1.37
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw73.9%1.35
- Draw no bet Athletic Club35.8%2.79
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid64.2%1.56
Goals
- Over 0.591.8%1.09
- Over 1.573.5%1.36
- Over 2.547.7%2.10
- Over 3.526.0%3.85
- Over 4.512.0%8.34
- Under 1.526.5%3.78
- Under 2.552.3%1.91
- Under 3.574.0%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes51.8%1.93
- No48.2%2.08
- Yes and over 2.539.0%2.57
- Athletic Club win and yes12.3%8.11
- Draw and yes18.8%5.32
- Atletico Madrid win and yes20.7%4.83
Team goals
- Athletic Club over 0.565.7%1.52
- Athletic Club over 1.529.0%3.45
- Athletic Club over 2.59.3%10.71
- Atletico Madrid over 0.578.0%1.28
- Atletico Madrid over 1.544.6%2.24
- Atletico Madrid over 2.519.4%5.15
- Athletic Club clean sheet22.0%4.54
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet34.3%2.91
- Athletic Club win to nil13.8%7.24
- Atletico Madrid win to nil26.1%3.83
Handicap
- Athletic Club −1.510.2%9.85
- Athletic Club −2.53.0%33.62
- Atletico Madrid +1.589.8%1.11
- Atletico Madrid +2.597.0%1.03
- Atletico Madrid −1.523.9%4.18
- Athletic Club +1.576.1%1.31
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored146
Favourite won56.2%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right62.3%
BTTS called right54.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 37.8% | 45.0% |
| 40–50% | 66 | 44.2% | 47.0% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.3% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.4% | 63.2% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.0% | 92.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 115 of 146 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5533 | 0.5469 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.4% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 115 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 146 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.