La Liga Gameweek 33 Wed, Apr 21 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Deportivo La Coruna 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel443 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Athletic Club—%
Draw—%
Deportivo La Coruna—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bilbao)

Forecast from 6 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Deportivo La Coruna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubDeportivo La Coruna
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
51 AttackIn forecast 40
64 DefenceIn forecast 57
70 Form indexContext 21
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic ClubDeportivo La Coruna
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.36
57% Scored inContext 89%
57% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.71 ShotsContext 11.67
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
29% On target shareContext 37%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
65% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 12%
3.33 OffsidesContext 1.71
10.43 Shots allowedContext 12.56
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
1.80 BlocksContext 3.11
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
83% Save rateContext 69%
54% PossessionIn forecast 48%
494 PassesContext 444
420 Accurate passesContext 376
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.79
11.43 FoulsContext 13.00
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.78
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.32
60% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.60 ShotsContext 11.10
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
30% On target shareContext 38%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
69% Box shareContext 66%
7% ConversionContext 13%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.63
10.10 Shots allowedContext 11.80
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
1.71 BlocksContext 3.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
72% Save rateContext 69%
50% PossessionIn forecast 48%
448 PassesContext 455
372 Accurate passesContext 389
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.77
12.70 FoulsContext 12.80
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,282 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel443 km1,393 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
  • D16 OctH · Levante1–11.6 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Sociedad2–31.1 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Real Betis1–11.2 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sevilla0–11.6 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Getafe1–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Deportivo La Coruna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 13Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km443 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,282 km1,393 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1111

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Deportivo La Coruna Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Levante (H) 1–1, 16 Oct
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 20J. Giménez 23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez 8Diego Villares 21Mario Soriano 19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo 10Peke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Deportivo La Coruna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubDeportivo La Coruna
Valencia D 0–0 A W 3–1 H
Elche D 1–1 H D 1–1 H
Sevilla L 1–3 H L 0–1 H
Points2 of 9 · 0.67 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.44
Conceded per game 0.861.33
Match goals 1.862.78
Over 1.5 71%89%
Over 2.5 29%33%
Over 3.5 14%33%
Both teams scored 29%89%
Clean sheets 57%0%
Failed to score 43%11%
Games79
Athletic ClubDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.44
Conceded per game 1.301.33
Match goals 2.302.78
Over 1.5 80%89%
Over 2.5 30%33%
Over 3.5 20%33%
Both teams scored 40%89%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 40%11%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.145.22
Corners conceded4.435.44
Match total10.5710.669.91
Over 8.557% 4/756% 5/9
Over 9.557% 4/756% 5/9
Over 10.557% 4/733% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.292.11
Opponent cards1.862.00
Match total4.154.114.73
Over 3.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 4.543% 3/733% 3/9
Athletic ClubDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.80
Corners conceded4.565.40
Match total10.4510.209.91
Over 8.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 9.556% 5/950% 5/10
Over 10.556% 5/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.802.00
Opponent cards1.701.80
Match total3.503.804.73
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Deportivo La Coruna Apr 2116:00 Valencia Rayo Vallecano Apr 2116:00 Villarreal Atletico Madrid Apr 2116:00 Sevilla Levante Apr 2116:00 Celta Vigo Barcelona Apr 2116:00 Espanyol Real Sociedad Apr 2116:00 Real Madrid Elche Apr 2116:00 Getafe Real Betis Apr 2116:00 Osasuna Alaves Apr 2116:00 Racing Santander Malaga Apr 2116:00