La Liga Gameweek 33 Wed, Apr 21 · 16:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
Celta Vigo 8th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel906 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Celta Vigo—%
Draw—%
Barcelona—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Vigo)

Forecast from 6 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Celta Vigo and Barcelona. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Celta VigoBarcelona
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
54 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
36 AttackIn forecast 97
61 DefenceIn forecast 92
47 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta VigoBarcelona
1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.33
0.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.92 xGVia Att/Def 3.73
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.60
56% Scored inContext 100%
44% Clean sheetsContext 44%
9.44 ShotsContext 21.11
3.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.44
34% On target shareContext 40%
4.67 Shots in the boxContext 14.56
47% Box shareContext 70%
12% ConversionContext 21%
3.00 OffsidesContext 3.11
13.33 Shots allowedContext 6.78
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.44 BlocksContext 1.60
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
80% Save rateContext 68%
50% PossessionIn forecast 70%
506 PassesContext 697
438 Accurate passesContext 632
87% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.87 Team ratingContext 7.42
12.22 FoulsContext 9.67
14.44 Fouls sufferedContext 10.22
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.30
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
0.99 xGVia Att/Def 3.55
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.75
60% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
10.40 ShotsContext 22.40
3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.90
32% On target shareContext 40%
5.50 Shots in the boxContext 15.00
50% Box shareContext 67%
11% ConversionContext 19%
3.00 OffsidesContext 3.30
14.50 Shots allowedContext 6.30
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
3.80 BlocksContext 1.43
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
77% Save rateContext 64%
49% PossessionIn forecast 72%
497 PassesContext 712
431 Accurate passesContext 651
87% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.38
11.90 FoulsContext 9.50
13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km259 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Alaves2–11.5 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Juventus1–21.2 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts
Barcelona
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel906 km1,082 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Celta Vigo Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km906 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways259 km1,082 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1111

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Alaves (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 30H. Burcio 5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 24C. Driouech
Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Celta Vigo Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.20
Barcelona · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
4.40
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentCelta VigoBarcelona
Elche D 0–0 A W 5–0 A
Racing Santander W 5–0 H W 7–2 H
Getafe D 1–1 A W 3–0 H
Athletic Club L 0–2 H W 2–0 H
Valencia D 0–0 A W 5–0 A
Points6 of 15 · 1.20 per game15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Celta Vigo wins2 draws7 Barcelona wins
Goals per game1.60 – 2.40 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%
  • 22 Apr 2026Barcelona1–0Celta Vigo
  • 9 Nov 2025Celta Vigo2–4Barcelona
  • 19 Apr 2025Barcelona4–3Celta Vigo
  • 23 Nov 2024Celta Vigo2–2Barcelona
  • 17 Feb 2024Celta Vigo1–2Barcelona
  • 23 Sep 2023Barcelona3–2Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Celta VigoBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 1.114.33
Conceded per game 0.781.00
Match goals 1.895.33
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%89%
Over 3.5 11%78%
Both teams scored 44%56%
Clean sheets 44%44%
Failed to score 44%0%
Games99
Celta VigoBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 1.104.30
Conceded per game 1.001.10
Match goals 2.105.40
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 40%90%
Over 3.5 10%80%
Both teams scored 50%70%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Celta VigoBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.136.00
Corners conceded4.752.88
Match total7.888.889.91
Over 8.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 9.525% 2/838% 3/8
Over 10.525% 2/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.781.33
Opponent cards2.111.78
Match total3.893.114.73
Over 3.544% 4/944% 4/9
Over 4.544% 4/933% 3/9
Celta VigoBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won3.676.33
Corners conceded5.222.44
Match total8.898.779.91
Over 8.533% 3/933% 3/9
Over 9.533% 3/933% 3/9
Over 10.533% 3/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.601.30
Opponent cards1.901.80
Match total3.503.104.73
Over 3.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1 0-15
3 16-30
3 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 4 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Deportivo La Coruna Apr 2116:00 Valencia Rayo Vallecano Apr 2116:00 Villarreal Atletico Madrid Apr 2116:00 Sevilla Levante Apr 2116:00 Celta Vigo Barcelona Apr 2116:00 Espanyol Real Sociedad Apr 2116:00 Real Madrid Elche Apr 2116:00 Getafe Real Betis Apr 2116:00 Osasuna Alaves Apr 2116:00 Racing Santander Malaga Apr 2116:00