La Liga Gameweek 33 Wed, Apr 21 · 16:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel352 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
Elche—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 6 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and Elche. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridElche
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 44
89 AttackIn forecast 39
85 DefenceIn forecast 51
91 Form indexContext 56
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridElche
2.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
2.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.07
1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
89% Scored inContext 67%
22% Clean sheetsContext 22%
17.56 ShotsContext 11.00
7.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
41% On target shareContext 38%
12.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.44
69% Box shareContext 55%
15% ConversionContext 11%
2.13 OffsidesContext 1.83
12.78 Shots allowedContext 14.89
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.44 BlocksContext 3.63
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
73% Save rateContext 60%
53% PossessionIn forecast 51%
528 PassesContext 478
476 Accurate passesContext 408
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.64
8.44 FoulsContext 13.44
14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.98
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.22
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.90 ShotsContext 10.20
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
43% On target shareContext 38%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.44
71% Box shareContext 55%
16% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.83
14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.40
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22
3.80 BlocksContext 3.44
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
75% Save rateContext 64%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
501 PassesContext 463
446 Accurate passesContext 391
89% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.65
8.90 FoulsContext 14.10
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km659 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
Elche
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km1,622 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
  • W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 19
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways659 km1,622 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1111

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Elche Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Elche Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
3.40
Conceded
0.60
Elche · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentReal MadridElche
Villarreal W 1–0 H D 0–0 A
Real Sociedad W 4–1 H L 2–3 H
Espanyol W 2–1 A W 3–1 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Real Madrid wins3 draws0 Elche wins
Goals per game2.56 – 1.11 Over 2.589% Both scored78% Clean sheets22% · 0%
  • 15 Sep 2026Elche2–3Real Madrid
  • 14 Mar 2026Real Madrid4–1Elche
  • 23 Nov 2025Elche2–2Real Madrid
  • 15 Feb 2023Real Madrid4–0Elche
  • 19 Oct 2022Elche0–3Real Madrid
  • 23 Jan 2022Real Madrid2–2Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridElcheForecast
Scored per game 2.561.22
Conceded per game 1.001.89
Match goals 3.563.11
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 78%56%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 22%22%
Failed to score 11%33%
Games99
Real MadridElcheForecast
Scored per game 2.701.20
Conceded per game 1.201.80
Match goals 3.903.00
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridElcheLeague
Corners
Corners won6.254.56
Corners conceded4.254.67
Match total10.509.239.91
Over 8.563% 5/833% 3/9
Over 9.563% 5/833% 3/9
Over 10.563% 5/833% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.332.44
Opponent cards2.672.00
Match total5.004.444.73
Over 3.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 4.567% 6/956% 5/9
Real MadridElcheLeague
Corners
Corners won6.304.20
Corners conceded5.004.40
Match total11.308.609.91
Over 8.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Over 9.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Over 10.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.202.60
Opponent cards2.502.20
Match total4.704.804.73
Over 3.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid9 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90
Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 31-45
1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Deportivo La Coruna Apr 2116:00 Valencia Rayo Vallecano Apr 2116:00 Villarreal Atletico Madrid Apr 2116:00 Sevilla Levante Apr 2116:00 Celta Vigo Barcelona Apr 2116:00 Espanyol Real Sociedad Apr 2116:00 Real Madrid Elche Apr 2116:00 Getafe Real Betis Apr 2116:00 Osasuna Alaves Apr 2116:00 Racing Santander Malaga Apr 2116:00