La Liga Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Valencia 19th · 6 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel472 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Athletic Club—%
Draw—%
Valencia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bilbao)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Valencia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubValencia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 51
51 AttackIn forecast 39
64 DefenceIn forecast 52
70 Form indexContext 36
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—
Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic ClubValencia
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.37
57% Scored inContext 44%
57% Clean sheetsContext 33%
14.71 ShotsContext 11.11
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
29% On target shareContext 24%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
65% Box shareContext 58%
7% ConversionContext 6%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.11
10.43 Shots allowedContext 15.11
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11
1.80 BlocksContext 4.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
83% Save rateContext 70%
54% PossessionIn forecast 46%
494 PassesContext 422
420 Accurate passesContext 346
85% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.70
11.43 FoulsContext 10.89
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.44
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
60% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.60 ShotsContext 11.90
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33
30% On target shareContext 25%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
69% Box shareContext 59%
7% ConversionContext 8%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.10 Shots allowedContext 14.70
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
1.71 BlocksContext 3.78
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
72% Save rateContext 70%
50% PossessionIn forecast 44%
448 PassesContext 400
372 Accurate passesContext 326
83% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.73
12.70 FoulsContext 10.90
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km101 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Valencia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel472 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Athletic Club0–01.4 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Racing Santander2–21.2 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.6 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Alaves1–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Sevilla0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km472 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways101 km604 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Valencia Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Athletic Club (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo
2G. Rodríguez 18Pepelu
7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 19Dani Raba
9Hugo Duro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Valencia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Valencia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubValencia
Alaves D 0–0 H W 1–0 A
Celta Vigo W 2–0 A D 0–0 H
Barcelona L 0–2 A L 0–5 H
Sevilla L 1–3 H L 0–1 A
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins3 draws3 Valencia wins
Goals per game0.70 – 0.70 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets50% · 50%
  • 17 Oct 2026Valencia0–0Athletic Club
  • 10 May 2026Athletic Club0–1Valencia
  • 20 Sep 2025Valencia2–0Athletic Club
  • 18 May 2025Valencia0–1Athletic Club
  • 28 Aug 2024Athletic Club1–0Valencia
  • 20 Jan 2024Valencia1–0Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubValenciaForecast
Scored per game 1.000.67
Conceded per game 0.861.67
Match goals 1.862.33
Over 1.5 71%44%
Over 2.5 29%44%
Over 3.5 14%44%
Both teams scored 29%33%
Clean sheets 57%33%
Failed to score 43%56%
Games79
Athletic ClubValenciaForecast
Scored per game 1.000.90
Conceded per game 1.301.60
Match goals 2.302.50
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 30%50%
Over 3.5 20%50%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 40%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.144.00
Corners conceded4.434.44
Match total10.578.449.91
Over 8.557% 4/756% 5/9
Over 9.557% 4/756% 5/9
Over 10.557% 4/722% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.292.22
Opponent cards1.862.22
Match total4.154.444.73
Over 3.543% 3/767% 6/9
Over 4.543% 3/756% 5/9
Athletic ClubValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.30
Corners conceded4.564.80
Match total10.459.109.91
Over 8.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 9.556% 5/960% 6/10
Over 10.556% 5/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.802.20
Opponent cards1.702.20
Match total3.504.404.73
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Valencia9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 6 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Deportivo La Coruna Mar 1416:00 Athletic Club Valencia Mar 1416:00 Malaga Rayo Vallecano Mar 1416:00 Real Madrid Espanyol Mar 1416:00 Alaves Sevilla Mar 1416:00 Real Betis Levante Mar 1416:00 Getafe Real Sociedad Mar 1416:00 Osasuna Celta Vigo Mar 1416:00 Elche Villarreal Mar 1416:00 Racing Santander Atletico Madrid Mar 1416:00