La Liga Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Deportivo La Coruna 9th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel894 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Barcelona—%
Draw—%
Deportivo La Coruna—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Barcelona)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Barcelona and Deportivo La Coruna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BarcelonaDeportivo La Coruna
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
97 AttackIn forecast 40
92 DefenceIn forecast 57
96 Form indexContext 21
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BarcelonaDeportivo La Coruna
4.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33
3.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.60 Goals minus xGContext +0.36
100% Scored inContext 89%
44% Clean sheetsContext 0%
21.11 ShotsContext 11.67
8.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
40% On target shareContext 37%
14.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
70% Box shareContext 64%
21% ConversionContext 12%
3.11 OffsidesContext 1.71
6.78 Shots allowedContext 12.56
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
1.60 BlocksContext 3.11
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
68% Save rateContext 69%
70% PossessionIn forecast 48%
697 PassesContext 444
632 Accurate passesContext 376
91% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.42 Team ratingContext 6.79
9.67 FoulsContext 13.00
10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.78
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
4.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
3.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.75 Goals minus xGContext +0.32
100% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
22.40 ShotsContext 11.10
8.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
40% On target shareContext 38%
15.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
67% Box shareContext 66%
19% ConversionContext 13%
3.30 OffsidesContext 1.63
6.30 Shots allowedContext 11.80
3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
1.43 BlocksContext 3.00
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
64% Save rateContext 69%
72% PossessionIn forecast 48%
712 PassesContext 455
651 Accurate passesContext 389
91% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.38 Team ratingContext 6.77
9.50 FoulsContext 12.80
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel894 km1,592 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
  • D16 OctH · Levante1–11.6 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Sociedad2–31.1 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Real Betis1–11.2 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sevilla0–11.6 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Getafe1–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Barcelona Deportivo La Coruna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km894 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways934 km1,592 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus
Deportivo La Coruna Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Levante (H) 1–1, 16 Oct
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata 22B. Ede 20J. Giménez 23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez 8Diego Villares 21Mario Soriano 19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo 10Peke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Deportivo La Coruna Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.25
Conceded
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentBarcelonaDeportivo La Coruna
Real Betis W 5–2 A D 1–1 H
Getafe W 3–0 H D 1–1 A
Sevilla W 3–1 A L 0–1 H
Levante W 4–2 A D 1–1 H
Valencia W 5–0 A W 3–1 H
Elche W 5–0 A D 1–1 H
Points18 of 18 · 3.00 per game7 of 18 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

BarcelonaDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 4.331.44
Conceded per game 1.001.33
Match goals 5.332.78
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 89%33%
Over 3.5 78%33%
Both teams scored 56%89%
Clean sheets 44%0%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games99
BarcelonaDeportivo La CorunaForecast
Scored per game 4.301.44
Conceded per game 1.101.33
Match goals 5.402.78
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 90%33%
Over 3.5 80%33%
Both teams scored 70%89%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 0%11%
Games109

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BarcelonaDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.005.22
Corners conceded2.885.44
Match total8.8810.669.91
Over 8.538% 3/856% 5/9
Over 9.538% 3/856% 5/9
Over 10.538% 3/833% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.332.11
Opponent cards1.782.00
Match total3.114.114.73
Over 3.544% 4/978% 7/9
Over 4.533% 3/933% 3/9
BarcelonaDeportivo La CorunaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.334.80
Corners conceded2.445.40
Match total8.7710.209.91
Over 8.533% 3/950% 5/10
Over 9.533% 3/950% 5/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.302.00
Opponent cards1.801.80
Match total3.103.804.73
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Deportivo La Coruna Mar 1416:00 Athletic Club Valencia Mar 1416:00 Malaga Rayo Vallecano Mar 1416:00 Real Madrid Espanyol Mar 1416:00 Alaves Sevilla Mar 1416:00 Real Betis Levante Mar 1416:00 Getafe Real Sociedad Mar 1416:00 Osasuna Celta Vigo Mar 1416:00 Elche Villarreal Mar 1416:00 Racing Santander Atletico Madrid Mar 1416:00