Elche vs Villarreal – 14 Mar 2027

La Liga Gameweek 28 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played DLWDD

VS— Compare

Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played LWWLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel193 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Elche—%

Draw—%

Villarreal—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Elche)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Elche

Villarreal

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

39 AttackIn forecast 76

51 DefenceIn forecast 73

56 Form indexContext 79

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Villarreal

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 2.13

1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.69

67% Scored inContext 67%

22% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.00 ShotsContext 16.33

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

38% On target shareContext 39%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 11.11

55% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.89

14.89 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

3.63 BlocksContext 5.14

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

60% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 60%

478 PassesContext 573

408 Accurate passesContext 510

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.87

13.44 FoulsContext 11.11

13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 16.50

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

38% On target shareContext 36%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

55% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.90

14.40 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.44 BlocksContext 4.63

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

64% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 59%

463 PassesContext 560

391 Accurate passesContext 493

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.10 FoulsContext 10.40

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche DLWDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel193 km1,167 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar	7La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	193 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,143 km	1,167 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1M. Dituro(G)

11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré

18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar

21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Villarreal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.75

Villarreal · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Elche	Villarreal
Real Madrid	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 A
Racing Santander	L 2–3 A	D 2–2 A
Deportivo La Coruna	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Elche wins3 draws4 Villarreal wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.78 Over 2.567% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 33%

17 Oct 2026Villarreal0–0Elche
8 Mar 2026Villarreal2–1Elche
3 Jan 2026Elche1–3Villarreal
4 Feb 2023Elche3–1Villarreal
4 Sep 2022Villarreal4–0Elche
16 Jan 2022Elche1–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Villarreal
Scored per game	1.22	1.44
Conceded per game	1.89	1.44
Match goals	3.11	2.89
Over 1.5	78%	67%
Over 2.5	56%	67%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	67%	67%
Clean sheets	22%	11%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	9	9

	Elche	Villarreal
Scored per game	1.20	1.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	3.00	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	70%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	7.11
Corners conceded	4.67	4.44
Match total	9.23	11.55	9.91
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.44	1.78
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	4.44	4.78	4.73
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Elche	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	6.50
Corners conceded	4.40	4.70
Match total	8.60	11.20	9.91
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.90
Match total	4.80	4.60	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.