Auxerre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Auxerre48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.78
Metz25.3%fair odds 3.96
Expected goals1.57 – 1.07total 2.64
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Metz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Auxerre ↓ · Metz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Auxerre goals, columns Metz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 1–010.5%9.49
- 2–19.4%10.62
- 2–08.8%11.39
- 0–07.7%12.92
- 0–17.0%14.32
- 1–26.4%15.57
- 2–25.0%19.81
- 3–14.9%20.27
- 3–04.6%21.73
Winning margin
10.4%
Auxerre by 3+
fair 9.61
14.9%
Auxerre by 2
fair 6.72
23.0%
Auxerre by 1
fair 4.35
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.78
15.5%
Metz by 1
fair 6.46
6.9%
Metz by 2
fair 14.45
2.9%
Metz by 3+
fair 34.90
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
25%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Auxerre goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+
Metz goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 48.3% | 49.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Metz win | 25.3% | 25.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 51.3% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.8% | 54.2% | -1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Auxerre | 1.57 | 1.63 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Metz | 1.07 | 1.10 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Auxerre win48.3%2.07
- Draw26.4%3.78
- Metz win25.3%3.96
- Double chance Auxerre or draw74.7%1.34
- Double chance Auxerre or Metz73.6%1.36
- Double chance Metz or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet Auxerre65.6%1.52
- Draw no bet Metz34.4%2.91
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.7%1.34
- Over 2.549.3%2.03
- Over 3.527.4%3.65
- Over 4.512.9%7.75
- Under 1.525.3%3.96
- Under 2.550.7%1.97
- Under 3.572.6%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes52.8%1.90
- No47.2%2.12
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- Auxerre win and yes21.8%4.59
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- Metz win and yes12.3%8.16
Team goals
- Auxerre over 0.579.2%1.26
- Auxerre over 1.546.6%2.15
- Auxerre over 2.521.0%4.77
- Metz over 0.565.8%1.52
- Metz over 1.529.1%3.44
- Metz over 2.59.4%10.63
- Auxerre clean sheet34.2%2.92
- Metz clean sheet20.8%4.82
- Auxerre win to nil26.5%3.78
- Metz win to nil13.0%7.68
Handicap
- Auxerre −1.525.3%3.96
- Auxerre −2.510.4%9.61
- Metz +1.574.7%1.34
- Metz +2.589.6%1.12
- Metz −1.59.8%10.22
- Auxerre +1.590.2%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored132
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right56.8%
BTTS called right51.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.0% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.4% | 42.5% |
| 50–60% | 32 | 53.9% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.9% | 70.0% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 74.8% | 76.9% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 85.6% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 105 of 132 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6051 | 0.5926 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.6% | 49.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 105 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 132 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.