Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Auxerre were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Auxerre had 7.9 days of rest, Metz 8.9 and had to travel 239 km.
Away travel239 kmRest days7.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Auxerre48%
Draw26%
Metz25%
Auxerre49%
Draw26%
Metz25%
Auxerre48%
Draw27%
Metz26%
Auxerre41%
Draw28%
Metz32%
Auxerre49%
Draw26%
Metz25%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 87
Team strength
Auxerre
Metz
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
39
AttackIn forecast
11
25
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreMetz
0.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.21
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
50%
Scored inContext
57%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.36
ShotsContext
8.86
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.15
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
60%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.70
11.36
Shots allowedContext
14.43
4.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.58
BlocksContext
3.00
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
72%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
369
PassesContext
437
299
Accurate passesContext
375
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.50
FoulsContext
10.64
14.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.36
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
40%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
8.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
29%
On target shareContext
36%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
61%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.40
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.33
BlocksContext
3.10
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
74%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
375
PassesContext
428
306
Accurate passesContext
365
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.40
FoulsContext
10.00
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel239 km1,565 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 1,565 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
22F. Oppegård
92C. Akpa
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
17O. El Azzouzi
34R. Matondo
19D. Namaso
9S. Mara
10L. Sinayoko
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
2M. Colin
8B. Traoré
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
14C. Sabaly
99J. Asoro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Metz-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 0.86
Metz · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 3.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | L 2–5 A |
| Nantes | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 36 · 0.50 per game | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.21 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 57% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 43% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 43% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Auxerre | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 9.07 | 9.43 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 6/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.93 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.29 | 3.07 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Auxerre | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.20 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.30 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.18league 3.71
Red cards0.21league 0.33
Cards 5+23%league 36%
Fouls20.8league 24.0
Penalties0.34league 0.47
Home wins49%league 51%
Auxerre7 with this referee
Record1-2-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D19 Oct 25A · Rennes2–23
- L14 May 23A · Stade Brestois 290–10
- W16 Apr 23H · Nantes2–12
- L19 Mar 23A · Strasbourg0–21
- L1 Feb 23A · Monaco2–30
Metz8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Aug 25A · Lyon0–32
- L30 Mar 24H · Monaco2–50
- W3 Mar 24A · Nantes2–02
- W8 May 22H · Lyon3–23
- L13 Feb 22H · Marseille1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre14 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Metz14 games · scored 14 · conceded 31
3
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
12
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
