AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Estoril. AVS had 6 days of rest, Estoril 8 and had to travel.
Rest days6 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
AVS19%
Draw24%
Estoril56%
AVS21%
Draw25%
Estoril54%
AVS19%
Draw24%
Estoril56%
AVS15%
Draw22%
Estoril64%
AVS20%
Draw23%
Estoril57%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 82
Team strength
AVS
Estoril
10
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
17
AttackIn forecast
21
21
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSEstoril
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.05
2.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
48%
Scored inContext
76%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.05
ShotsContext
12.00
2.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
28%
On target shareContext
37%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
56%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
17%
1.92
OffsidesContext
1.47
14.19
Shots allowedContext
11.52
5.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.25
BlocksContext
2.78
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
56%
Save rateContext
60%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
312
PassesContext
421
234
Accurate passesContext
344
75%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.38
FoulsContext
12.19
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
12.48
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
2.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.88
40%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.00
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
26%
On target shareContext
43%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
53%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
22%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.33
15.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.33
BlocksContext
3.25
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
61%
Save rateContext
63%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
291
PassesContext
445
213
Accurate passesContext
374
73%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.49
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.40
FoulsContext
12.00
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
70Roni
20Diego Duarte
8Pedro Lima
23Gustavo Mendonça
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
4Ferro
2Ricard Sánchez
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
12João Carvalho
99R. Guitane
9A. Marqués
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-8
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 2.09
Estoril · Away
1.10points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | W 4–3 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 0–1 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–4 A | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | W 4–1 H |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 5 of 60 · 0.25 per game | 27 of 60 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws2 Estoril wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 13 Sep 2025Estoril3–1AVS
- 4 Apr 2025AVS0–3Estoril
- 9 Nov 2024Estoril0–0AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 2.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.57 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.71 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 62% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 52% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| AVS | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 4.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.68 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 9.26 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 5.09 | 4.91 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 86% 18/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 13/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| AVS | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 8.90 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.70 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.01league 4.93
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+61%league 59%
Fouls28.8league 26.9
Penalties0.30league 0.45
Home wins39%league 41%
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 Nov 24H · Famalicao2–34
Estoril4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L27 Sep 25H · Sporting CP0–14
- W26 Jan 25H · Guimaraes1–03
- L5 May 24A · Farense2–30
- D17 Sep 22H · FC Porto1–18
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS21 games · scored 15 · conceded 54
1
8
0-15
1
7
16-30
4
9
31-45
2
12
46-60
2
11
61-75
5
7
76-90
Estoril21 games · scored 43 · conceded 35
4
7
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
4
46-60
7
7
61-75
5
6
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 29
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
7
46-60
1
6
61-75
2
4
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
