AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. AVS had 6.9 days of rest, Estrela 7.8 and had to travel.
Rest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
AVS34%
Draw30%
Estrela36%
AVS36%
Draw27%
Estrela36%
AVS34%
Draw30%
Estrela36%
AVS28%
Draw29%
Estrela43%
AVS35%
Draw28%
Estrela37%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.88
- Matches 8
Team strength
AVS
Estrela
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
17
AttackIn forecast
24
21
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSEstrela
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
2.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
48%
Scored inContext
57%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.91
ShotsContext
10.30
2.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
26%
On target shareContext
33%
5.59
Shots in the boxContext
5.22
56%
Box shareContext
49%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.95
14.48
Shots allowedContext
13.09
5.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.74
3.36
BlocksContext
3.73
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
58%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
308
PassesContext
345
229
Accurate passesContext
279
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.22
FoulsContext
14.26
11.48
Fouls sufferedContext
14.65
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
2.61
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
40%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
8.00
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
22%
On target shareContext
34%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
3.80
49%
Box shareContext
49%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
16.00
Shots allowedContext
14.70
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.56
BlocksContext
4.33
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
62%
Save rateContext
63%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
279
PassesContext
338
195
Accurate passesContext
272
70%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.70
FoulsContext
15.70
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—619 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 619 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
33Aderllan Santos
97Mateus Pivô
70Roni
20Diego Duarte
27Ángel Algobia
23Gustavo Mendonça
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
4S. Leković
17Jefferson Encada
6Kevin Höög Jansson
19Paulo Moreira
10I. Stoica
11Jovane Cabral
99A. Marcus
20S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-8
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.92
Estrela · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–5 HD 1–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Casa Pia | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | W 5–3 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 0–4 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 8 of 66 · 0.36 per game | 20 of 66 · 0.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 AVS wins1 draws1 Estrela wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 27 Sep 2025Estrela3–0AVS
- 11 May 2025Estrela0–1AVS
- 28 Dec 2024AVS1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.48 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.91 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 52% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 48% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 52% | 43% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| AVS | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.65 | 5.15 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.75 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.83 | 5.48 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 74% 17/23 | |
| AVS | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 9.45 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.20 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.86
Red cards0.13league 0.28
Cards 5+38%league 59%
Fouls28.5league 26.9
Penalties0.88league 0.44
Home wins25%league 43%
AVSNo previous matches with this referee.
Estrela2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D3 Jan 26H · SC Braga3–32
- L16 Aug 25H · Benfica0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS23 games · scored 18 · conceded 57
1
9
0-15
1
8
16-30
4
10
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
11
61-75
6
7
76-90
Estrela22 games · scored 21 · conceded 38
2
6
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
3
9
46-60
5
9
61-75
2
3
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 9 · conceded 26
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
8
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
