AVS
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AVS11.1%fair odds 9.03
Draw20.1%fair odds 4.98
SC Braga68.8%fair odds 1.45
Expected goals0.71 – 2.08total 2.79
Likeliest score0–213.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Braga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AVS ↓ · SC Braga → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AVS goals, columns SC Braga goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–213.3%7.53
- 0–112.3%8.16
- 1–19.5%10.49
- 1–29.4%10.60
- 0–39.2%10.85
- 0–06.6%15.17
- 1–36.6%15.26
- 0–44.8%20.82
- 1–03.9%25.86
- 1–43.4%29.29
Winning margin
0.6%
AVS by 3+
fair 160.34
2.5%
AVS by 2
fair 40.59
8.0%
AVS by 1
fair 12.52
20.1%
Draw
fair 4.98
24.3%
SC Braga by 1
fair 4.11
21.2%
SC Braga by 2
fair 4.72
23.3%
SC Braga by 3+
fair 4.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
AVS goals
49%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
SC Braga goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVS win | 11.1% | 11.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 20.1% | 19.9% | +0.2 pp |
| SC Braga win | 68.8% | 68.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 55.0% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.0% | 47.1% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals AVS | 0.71 | 0.75 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals SC Braga | 2.08 | 2.13 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AVS win11.1%9.03
- Draw20.1%4.98
- SC Braga win68.8%1.45
- Double chance AVS or draw31.2%3.21
- Double chance AVS or SC Braga79.9%1.25
- Double chance SC Braga or draw88.9%1.12
- Draw no bet AVS13.9%7.22
- Draw no bet SC Braga86.1%1.16
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.3%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.7%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.60
- Under 1.522.7%4.40
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.3%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes45.0%2.22
- No55.0%1.82
- Yes and over 2.535.5%2.82
- AVS win and yes5.2%19.15
- Draw and yes13.5%7.41
- SC Braga win and yes26.3%3.80
Team goals
- AVS over 0.550.9%1.97
- AVS over 1.516.0%6.27
- AVS over 2.53.5%28.18
- SC Braga over 0.587.6%1.14
- SC Braga over 1.561.6%1.62
- SC Braga over 2.534.6%2.89
- AVS clean sheet12.4%8.03
- SC Braga clean sheet49.1%2.04
- AVS win to nil5.9%17.09
- SC Braga win to nil42.5%2.35
Handicap
- AVS −1.53.1%32.39
- AVS −2.50.6%160.34
- SC Braga +1.596.9%1.03
- SC Braga +2.599.4%1.01
- SC Braga −1.544.5%2.25
- AVS +1.555.5%1.80
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored178
Favourite won61.2%
Avg chance given to result44.5%
1X2 Brier0.531
Over 2.5 called right57.9%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 37.7% | 46.9% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 44.8% | 50.8% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.6% | 86.4% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 75.3% | 76.2% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 149 of 178 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5260 | 0.5141 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.7% | 46.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.4% | 61.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 149 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 178 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.