AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were clear favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 10). SC Braga usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. AVS had 9.9 days of rest, SC Braga 3.9 and had to travel.
Rest days9.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
AVS11%
Draw20%
SC Braga69%
AVS11%
Draw19%
SC Braga70%
AVS11%
Draw20%
SC Braga69%
AVS8%
Draw17%
SC Braga75%
AVS12%
Draw20%
SC Braga69%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 34
Team strength
AVS
SC Braga
10
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
17
AttackIn forecast
42
21
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSSC Braga
0.74
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.95
2.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
47%
Scored inContext
84%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
10.37
ShotsContext
12.79
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.05
28%
On target shareContext
40%
5.94
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
56%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.42
Shots allowedContext
7.84
5.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.06
3.21
BlocksContext
2.25
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.31
57%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
315
PassesContext
606
236
Accurate passesContext
531
75%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.89
FoulsContext
10.63
12.21
Fouls sufferedContext
12.63
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
50%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.90
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
31%
On target shareContext
36%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
56%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.70
Shots allowedContext
8.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
2.80
BlocksContext
1.78
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
305
PassesContext
580
225
Accurate passesContext
505
74%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.40
FoulsContext
10.70
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest9.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel—3,241 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 3.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,241 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
24Kiki
35Rúben Semedo
27Ángel Algobia
26Carlos Ponck
23Gustavo Mendonça
14Ó. Perea
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
11B. Akinsola
20Diego Duarte
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
10R. Zalazar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-7
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 1.90
SC Braga · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | W 4–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Tondela | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 54 · 0.22 per game | 32 of 54 · 1.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws2 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 24 Aug 2025SC Braga2–2AVS
- 13 Apr 2025SC Braga4–1AVS
- 1 Dec 2024AVS0–1SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.74 | 1.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.47 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 2.89 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 47% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 16% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| AVS | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.30 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 3.06 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 8.44 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.53 | 1.95 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.79 | 2.68 | |
| Match total | 5.32 | 4.63 | 5.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 12/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| AVS | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 7.77 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 4.70 | 5.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 4.96
Red cards0.21league 0.29
Cards 5+44%league 58%
Fouls29.1league 27.2
Penalties0.32league 0.47
Home wins53%league 40%
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Apr 25A · Benfica0–63
SC Braga1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Oct 25H · Casa Pia4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS19 games · scored 14 · conceded 47
1
7
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
9
31-45
1
11
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
5
76-90
SC Braga19 games · scored 37 · conceded 18
6
2
0-15
9
5
16-30
8
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 9 · conceded 25
5
0-15
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
