AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax – 8 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 8 · 13:30 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 7th · 32 pts · 21 played WLDWL

First leg2–0 1–1Full time

Ajax 4th · 38 pts · 21 played DWDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. AZ Alkmaar had 7.9 days of rest, Ajax 7.1 and had to travel 30 km.

Away travel30 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

AZ Alkmaar33%

Draw26%

Ajax41%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.49

AZ Alkmaar37%

Draw27%

Ajax36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

AZ Alkmaar34%

Draw26%

Ajax40%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.48

AZ Alkmaar26%

Draw25%

Ajax48%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.67

AZ Alkmaar33%

Draw28%

Ajax40%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.38

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 102

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Ajax

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

52 AttackIn forecast 66

49 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Ajax

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.95

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

95% Scored inContext 95%

24% Clean sheetsContext 24%

15.62 ShotsContext 15.00

5.62 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.48

36% On target shareContext 43%

10.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.76

65% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.62 OffsidesContext 1.76

12.33 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.40 BlocksContext 4.11

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.45

68% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 57%

454 PassesContext 526

375 Accurate passesContext 455

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.03

10.48 FoulsContext 10.14

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.24

2.24 Yellow cardsContext 1.76

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext +0.59

80% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.20 ShotsContext 16.10

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.80

33% On target shareContext 42%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

68% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.50

9.60 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.30 BlocksContext 4.00

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

66% Save rateContext 69%

56% PossessionIn forecast 58%

461 PassesContext 530

380 Accurate passesContext 460

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.99

11.00 FoulsContext 9.20

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel30 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Jan	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	30 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

41J. Zoet(G)

34M. de Wit 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 2S. Maikuma

6P. Koopmeiners 20Kasper Boogaard

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 33M. Šín 17I. Jensen

9T. Parrott

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1V. Jaroš(G)

5O. Wijndal 15Y. Baas 37J. Šutalo 3A. Gaaei

48Sean Steur 6Y. Regeer 18D. Klaassen

11M. Godts 9K. Dolberg 43Rayane Bounida

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.6 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ajax+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-2
Scored: 2.10
Conceded: 1.90

Ajax · Away 1.50points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-6-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.90

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Telstar	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 3–2 AW 2–0 H
Excelsior	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 3–4 A	W 3–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Twente	L 0–1 A	W 3–2 A
Heerenveen	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 H	D 2–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 1–0 A	D 3–3 A
Utrecht	W 4–1 H	L 1–2 A
Feyenoord	D 3–3 H	W 2–0 H
Heracles	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Groningen	W 4–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	29 of 60 · 1.45 per game	38 of 60 · 1.90 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 Ajax wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

18 Oct 2025Ajax0–2AZ Alkmaar
16 Mar 2025Ajax2–2AZ Alkmaar
8 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar2–1Ajax
8 Oct 2023Ajax1–2AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	1.95
Conceded per game	1.67	1.33
Match goals	3.38	3.29	2.81
Over 1.5	76%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	62%	53%
Over 3.5	52%	48%
Both teams scored	71%	71%	57%
Clean sheets	24%	24%
Failed to score	5%	5%
Games	21	21

	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.00
Conceded per game	2.20	1.30
Match goals	3.40	3.30	2.81
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	5.81	4.80
Corners conceded	4.10	5.10
Match total	9.91	9.90	10.23
Over 8.5	71% 15/21	55% 11/20
Over 9.5	43% 9/21	40% 8/20
Over 10.5	29% 6/21	35% 7/20
Cards
Cards	2.29	1.81
Opponent cards	1.57	1.76
Match total	3.86	3.57	3.61
Over 3.5	48% 10/21	43% 9/21
Over 4.5	33% 7/21	33% 7/21

	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	3.67
Corners conceded	3.70	5.44
Match total	9.40	9.11	10.23
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.60
Opponent cards	1.70	2.40
Match total	3.70	4.00	3.61
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 102 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.40

Red cards0.13league 0.21

Cards 5+26%league 32%

Fouls21.7league 21.7

Penalties0.30league 0.26

Home wins42%league 44%

AZ Alkmaar8 with this referee

Record2-3-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 2

W2 Nov 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–01
D21 Sep 25H · Feyenoord3–34
D11 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
L29 Sep 24H · Utrecht1–21
L4 Feb 24H · Feyenoord0–12

Ajax10 with this referee

Record5-1-4 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.2 Pens for · against3 · 0

L9 Nov 25A · Utrecht1–20
D17 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–22
W18 May 25H · Twente2–00
W6 Apr 25H · NAC Breda3–11
W2 Feb 25H · Feyenoord2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.