Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 23 pts · 13 played
LWWLL
2–0Full time
1.FC Köln
9th · 16 pts · 13 played
WLLDD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 39). Bayer Leverkusen had 7.1 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 7.1 and had to travel 11 km.
Away travel11 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Bayer Leverkusen72%
Draw17%
1.FC Köln11%
Bayer Leverkusen70%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln11%
Bayer Leverkusen73%
Draw17%
1.FC Köln11%
Bayer Leverkusen65%
Draw20%
1.FC Köln15%
Bayer Leverkusen70%
Draw19%
1.FC Köln11%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 93
Team strength
Bayer Leverkusen1.FC Köln
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
87
AttackIn forecast
36
79
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer Leverkusen1.FC Köln
2.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
85%
Scored inContext
92%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
13.69
ShotsContext
12.00
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.69
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
63%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.46
Shots allowedContext
13.69
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
2.64
BlocksContext
4.38
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
66%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
607
PassesContext
417
542
Accurate passesContext
345
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.92
FoulsContext
9.00
10.92
Fouls sufferedContext
10.31
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.10
ShotsContext
11.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
31%
On target shareContext
37%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
69%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.88
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.78
BlocksContext
4.00
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
71%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
562
PassesContext
432
505
Accurate passesContext
360
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.83
6.70
FoulsContext
8.50
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km816 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel11 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 11 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 816 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
19E. Poku
30I. Maza
24Aleix García
13Arthur
10M. Tillman
7J. Hofmann
35Christian Kofane
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
33R. van den Berg
6E. Martel
28S. Sebulonsen
16J. Kamiński
5T. Krauß
8D. Huseinbašić
29J. Thielmann
13S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
7G. Waldschmidt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 0.86
1.FC Köln · Away
1.14points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 H | L 3–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game | 13 of 30 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws2 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 3 Mar 20241.FC Köln0–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 8 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–01.FC Köln
- 5 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–21.FC Köln
- 9 Nov 20221.FC Köln1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 13 Mar 2022Bayer Leverkusen0–11.FC Köln
- 24 Oct 20211.FC Köln2–2Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.15 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.62 | 3.31 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 54% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 77% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.69 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 6.42 | |
| Match total | 9.84 | 10.59 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.08 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.46 | 3.77 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 10.88 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.70 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.93
Red cards0.18league 0.20
Cards 5+43%league 42%
Fouls22.2league 21.3
Penalties0.30league 0.33
Home wins53%league 48%
Bayer Leverkusen6 with this referee
Record6-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W26 Oct 25H · SC Freiburg2–01
- W18 Jan 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
- W14 Apr 24H · Werder Bremen5–02
- W17 Mar 24A · SC Freiburg3–20
- W17 Feb 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–11
1.FC Köln4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L17 Dec 23A · SC Freiburg0–24
- W1 Oct 22H · Borussia Dortmund3–24
- D28 Aug 22H · VfB Stuttgart0–02
- D11 Sep 21A · SC Freiburg1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen13 games · scored 28 · conceded 19
6
1
0-15
7
3
16-30
6
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
1.FC Köln13 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
61-75
11
5
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
