Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 13 · 17:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen 6th · 23 pts · 13 played
2–0Full time
1.FC Köln 9th · 16 pts · 13 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Bayer Leverkusen72.1%fair odds 1.39
Draw17.2%fair odds 5.82
1.FC Köln10.8%fair odds 9.30
Expected goals2.47 – 0.86total 3.33
Likeliest score2–010.9%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Bayer Leverkusen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1.FC Köln

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · 1.FC Köln →0123456+
04.02.71.30.40.10.00.0
18.48.03.30.90.20.00.0
210.99.44.11.20.30.00.0
38.97.73.31.00.20.00.0
45.54.82.10.60.10.00.0
52.72.41.00.30.10.00.0
6+1.71.50.60.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns 1.FC Köln goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–010.9%9.20
  • 2–19.4%10.64
  • 3–08.9%11.18
  • 1–08.4%11.89
  • 1–18.0%12.46
  • 3–17.7%12.93
  • 4–05.5%18.13
  • 4–14.8%20.97
  • 2–24.1%24.60
  • 0–04.0%25.15

Winning margin

29.3% Bayer Leverkusen by 3+ fair 3.42
21.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 2 fair 4.76
21.8% Bayer Leverkusen by 1 fair 4.58
17.2% Draw fair 5.82
7.4% 1.FC Köln by 1 fair 13.54
2.6% 1.FC Köln by 2 fair 38.79
0.8% 1.FC Köln by 3+ fair 126.75

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+

Bayer Leverkusen goals

8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+

1.FC Köln goals

42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Bayer Leverkusen win 72.1% 69.7% +2.4 pp
Draw 17.2% 18.9% -1.8 pp
1.FC Köln win 10.8% 11.4% -0.6 pp
Over 2.5 64.7% 58.5% +6.2 pp
Both teams score 53.4% 49.5% +3.8 pp
Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 2.47 2.24 +0.23
Expected goals 1.FC Köln 0.86 0.80 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Bayer Leverkusen win72.1%1.39
  • Draw17.2%5.82
  • 1.FC Köln win10.8%9.30
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw89.2%1.12
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or 1.FC Köln82.8%1.21
  • Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw27.9%3.58
  • Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen87.0%1.15
  • Draw no bet 1.FC Köln13.0%7.70

Goals

  • Over 0.596.0%1.04
  • Over 1.584.9%1.18
  • Over 2.564.7%1.55
  • Over 3.542.7%2.34
  • Over 4.524.3%4.11
  • Under 1.515.1%6.64
  • Under 2.535.3%2.83
  • Under 3.557.3%1.74

Both teams to score

  • Yes53.4%1.87
  • No46.6%2.14
  • Yes and over 2.545.4%2.21
  • Bayer Leverkusen win and yes33.9%2.95
  • Draw and yes13.2%7.58
  • 1.FC Köln win and yes6.2%16.01

Team goals

  • Bayer Leverkusen over 0.591.5%1.09
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 1.570.6%1.42
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 2.544.8%2.23
  • 1.FC Köln over 0.557.9%1.73
  • 1.FC Köln over 1.521.5%4.66
  • 1.FC Köln over 2.55.7%17.49
  • Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet42.1%2.37
  • 1.FC Köln clean sheet8.5%11.79
  • Bayer Leverkusen win to nil38.1%2.62
  • 1.FC Köln win to nil4.5%22.19

Handicap

  • Bayer Leverkusen −1.550.3%1.99
  • Bayer Leverkusen −2.529.3%3.42
  • 1.FC Köln +1.549.7%2.01
  • 1.FC Köln +2.570.7%1.41
  • 1.FC Köln −1.53.4%29.70
  • Bayer Leverkusen +1.596.6%1.03

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored122 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.3% 1X2 Brier0.552 Over 2.5 called right63.1% BTTS called right57.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1538.1%46.7%
40–50%4045.1%42.5%
50–60%3354.8%57.6%
60–70%2265.2%77.3%
70–80%1074.5%70.0%
80%+290.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 103 of 122 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.53520.5348
Avg chance given to result44.1%43.6%
Favourite won59.2%59.2%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 103 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 122 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.