Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 44 pts · 25 played
WLDWD
1–1Full time
Bayern München
1st · 66 pts · 25 played
WWWWW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 78). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayern München. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, Bayern München 7.8 and had to travel 461 km.
Away travel461 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen18%
Draw19%
Bayern München64%
Bayer Leverkusen23%
Draw25%
Bayern München51%
Bayer Leverkusen18%
Draw19%
Bayern München62%
Bayer Leverkusen13%
Draw16%
Bayern München72%
Bayer Leverkusen19%
Draw21%
Bayern München60%
Over 2.5 74%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 68
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenBayern München
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
79
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
87
AttackIn forecast
96
79
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenBayern München
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.68
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.96
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
2.67
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+1.01
84%
Scored inContext
100%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
13.16
ShotsContext
18.32
4.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.44
34%
On target shareContext
46%
7.92
Shots in the boxContext
12.52
59%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
20%
1.48
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.68
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.63
3.05
BlocksContext
3.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
73%
Save rateContext
69%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
610
PassesContext
685
541
Accurate passesContext
618
89%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.20
8.84
FoulsContext
9.00
10.56
Fouls sufferedContext
8.72
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
2.85
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
17.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.50
33%
On target shareContext
48%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
55%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
18%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.89
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.90
BlocksContext
3.33
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
77%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
600
PassesContext
666
525
Accurate passesContext
603
87%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.21
8.50
FoulsContext
9.50
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,380 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Bayern München
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel461 km955 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 461 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,380 km | 955 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
19E. Poku
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
10M. Tillman
11M. Terrier
14P. Schick
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
26S. Ulreich(G)
27K. Laimer
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
11N. Jackson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Bayern München+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 2.08
- Conceded
- 0.92
Bayern München · Away
2.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-0
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | W 6–2 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | W 5–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | W 8–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 6–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 44 of 72 · 1.83 per game | 63 of 72 · 2.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Bayer Leverkusen wins4 draws4 Bayern München wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.70
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 50%
- 1 Nov 2025Bayern München3–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 11 Mar 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern München
- 5 Mar 2025Bayern München3–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 15 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–0Bayern München
- 28 Sep 2024Bayern München1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 10 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen3–0Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 3.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 0.96 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.64 | 3.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 76% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 64% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 0% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 5.00 | 3.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.92 | 5.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.28 | 3.52 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.43 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 1.68 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.32 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.70 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.72
Red cards0.13league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls23.4league 20.6
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins38%league 46%
Bayer Leverkusen9 with this referee
Record8-1-0
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- D7 Feb 26A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–13
- W4 Oct 25H · Union Berlin2–01
- W26 Apr 25H · FC Augsburg2–00
- W30 Nov 24A · Union Berlin2–12
- W5 May 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt5–10
Bayern München7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- L8 Mar 25H · VfL Bochum2–31
- W1 Sep 24H · SC Freiburg2–01
- W27 Jan 24A · FC Augsburg3–26
- W6 May 23A · Werder Bremen2–11
- W4 Mar 23A · VfB Stuttgart2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen25 games · scored 48 · conceded 32
8
4
0-15
8
5
16-30
13
11
31-45
6
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
7
5
76-90
Bayern München25 games · scored 92 · conceded 24
6
3
0-15
17
4
16-30
17
4
31-45
10
2
46-60
15
2
61-75
27
9
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 31 · conceded 12
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
