Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
5th · 52 pts · 29 played
DDDWW
1–2Full time
FC Augsburg
10th · 33 pts · 29 played
LLLDD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7.8 and had to travel 408 km.
Away travel408 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen71%
Draw17%
FC Augsburg12%
Bayer Leverkusen69%
Draw19%
FC Augsburg12%
Bayer Leverkusen71%
Draw17%
FC Augsburg12%
Bayer Leverkusen63%
Draw20%
FC Augsburg17%
Bayer Leverkusen68%
Draw19%
FC Augsburg13%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 59
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
87
AttackIn forecast
72
79
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenFC Augsburg
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.34
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
86%
Scored inContext
72%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.48
ShotsContext
12.55
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.24
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
59%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.59
Shots allowedContext
13.28
4.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
2.85
BlocksContext
4.44
3.41
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
71%
Save rateContext
61%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
598
PassesContext
389
529
Accurate passesContext
309
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.76
8.83
FoulsContext
10.93
10.41
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.55
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
13.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
60%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.20
BlocksContext
4.63
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
68%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
530
PassesContext
383
460
Accurate passesContext
302
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.60
FoulsContext
10.50
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel408 km1,159 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 408 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 127 km | 1,159 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
25E. Palacios
21Lucas Vázquez
23N. Tella
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
34Arthur Chaves
13D. Giannoulis
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
30A. Kade
21Rodrigo Ribeiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-3
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 1.07
FC Augsburg · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-9
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 6–3 HW 3–1 A | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | L 2–5 HL 2–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 52 of 84 · 1.86 per game | 30 of 84 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Bayer Leverkusen wins0 draws3 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.89 – 0.89
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 6 Dec 2025FC Augsburg2–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 26 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0FC Augsburg
- 14 Dec 2024FC Augsburg0–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FC Augsburg
- 13 Jan 2024FC Augsburg0–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 3 Feb 2023FC Augsburg1–0Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.34 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.07 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 59% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 28% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.03 | 4.34 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.24 | |
| Match total | 9.03 | 9.58 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 18/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 14/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.83 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 4.97 | 4.38 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 18/29 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 14/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.80 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.10 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.75
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 20.4
Penalties0.34league 0.37
Home wins31%league 44%
Bayer Leverkusen7 with this referee
Record5-2-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D7 Mar 26A · SC Freiburg3–33
- W20 Dec 25A · RB Leipzig3–12
- W12 May 24A · VfL Bochum5–01
- W6 Apr 24A · Union Berlin1–02
- W30 Sep 23A · FSV Mainz 053–01
FC Augsburg4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 25H · VfL Wolfsburg3–12
- W19 Jan 25A · Werder Bremen2–02
- D10 Feb 24H · RB Leipzig2–25
- L28 Aug 21H · Bayer Leverkusen1–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen29 games · scored 59 · conceded 39
9
4
0-15
10
6
16-30
16
13
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
5
61-75
9
6
76-90
FC Augsburg29 games · scored 36 · conceded 53
5
6
0-15
4
10
16-30
6
12
31-45
9
10
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
8
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
