Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayer Leverkusen
5th · 52 pts · 29 played
DDDWW
1–2Full time
FC Augsburg
10th · 33 pts · 29 played
LLLDD
Bayer Leverkusen71.0%fair odds 1.41
Draw17.0%fair odds 5.90
FC Augsburg12.1%fair odds 8.28
Expected goals2.58 – 1.00total 3.58
Likeliest score2–09.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · FC Augsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.3%10.77
- 2–19.3%10.78
- 3–08.0%12.53
- 3–18.0%12.53
- 1–17.6%13.19
- 1–06.8%14.67
- 4–05.1%19.43
- 4–15.1%19.44
- 2–24.6%21.56
- 3–24.0%25.08
Winning margin
29.6%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 3.38
20.3%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 4.92
21.1%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.75
17.0%
Draw
fair 5.90
7.9%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 12.61
3.1%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 32.75
1.1%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 92.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
FC Augsburg goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 71.0% | 68.4% | +2.5 pp |
| Draw | 17.0% | 18.6% | -1.7 pp |
| FC Augsburg win | 12.1% | 12.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 63.8% | +5.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.8% | 55.5% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.58 | 2.35 | +0.23 |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.00 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayer Leverkusen win71.0%1.41
- Draw17.0%5.90
- FC Augsburg win12.1%8.28
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw87.9%1.14
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or FC Augsburg83.0%1.20
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw29.0%3.44
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen85.5%1.17
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg14.5%6.88
Goals
- Over 0.596.8%1.03
- Over 1.587.6%1.14
- Over 2.569.3%1.44
- Over 3.548.0%2.08
- Over 4.528.9%3.46
- Under 1.512.4%8.06
- Under 2.530.7%3.26
- Under 3.552.0%1.92
Both teams to score
- Yes58.8%1.70
- No41.2%2.43
- Yes and over 2.551.2%1.95
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes37.3%2.68
- Draw and yes13.8%7.25
- FC Augsburg win and yes7.7%13.06
Team goals
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.592.4%1.08
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.572.8%1.37
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.547.6%2.10
- FC Augsburg over 0.563.2%1.58
- FC Augsburg over 1.526.4%3.79
- FC Augsburg over 2.58.0%12.46
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet36.8%2.72
- FC Augsburg clean sheet7.6%13.18
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil33.6%2.97
- FC Augsburg win to nil4.4%22.66
Handicap
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.549.9%2.00
- Bayer Leverkusen −2.529.6%3.38
- FC Augsburg +1.550.1%2.00
- FC Augsburg +2.570.4%1.42
- FC Augsburg −1.54.1%24.16
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.595.9%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored262
Favourite won56.5%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.558
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right57.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.3% | 37.1% |
| 40–50% | 83 | 44.9% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 69 | 55.2% | 59.4% |
| 60–70% | 40 | 64.6% | 70.0% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 74.0% | 78.3% |
| 80%+ | 12 | 86.6% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 215 of 262 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5509 | 0.5494 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.7% | 56.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 215 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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- ✗FC Augsburg 2–2 1899 Hoffenheim39·24·38
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 262 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.