Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 36 pts · 20 played
LLWWD
4–0Full time
FC St. Pauli
17th · 17 pts · 21 played
LDDLW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC St. Pauli. Bayer Leverkusen had 6.9 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 7 and had to travel 347 km.
Away travel347 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen73%
Draw17%
FC St. Pauli10%
Bayer Leverkusen76%
Draw16%
FC St. Pauli8%
Bayer Leverkusen71%
Draw18%
FC St. Pauli11%
Bayer Leverkusen66%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli14%
Bayer Leverkusen70%
Draw19%
FC St. Pauli11%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 98
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
87
AttackIn forecast
20
79
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
85%
Scored inContext
62%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.25
ShotsContext
10.19
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.65
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.15
Shots in the boxContext
5.86
60%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.53
11.85
Shots allowedContext
10.95
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.00
BlocksContext
3.35
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
73%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
607
PassesContext
434
540
Accurate passesContext
343
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.05
FoulsContext
10.05
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
8.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
58%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.13
BlocksContext
3.56
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
82%
Save rateContext
70%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
612
PassesContext
372
541
Accurate passesContext
285
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.79
8.70
FoulsContext
8.80
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km398 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel347 km1,159 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 347 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 398 km | 1,159 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
25E. Palacios
21Lucas Vázquez
19E. Poku
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
15Tomoya Ando
25A. Dźwigała
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
7J. Irvine
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
20M. Rasmussen
10D. Sinani
19M. Kaars
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-8
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 6–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 33 of 57 · 1.74 per game | 13 of 54 · 0.72 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Sep 2025FC St. Pauli1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 20 Apr 2025FC St. Pauli1–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 7 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.62 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 57% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 38% | |
| Games | 20 | 21 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.85 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.60 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 5.05 | 3.33 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 10/20 | 24% 5/21 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.20 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.60 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.75
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls20.2league 20.9
Penalties0.17league 0.36
Home wins42%league 45%
Bayer Leverkusen7 with this referee
Record4-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 25A · FC Augsburg0–23
- W28 Mar 25H · VfL Bochum3–10
- W13 Jan 24A · FC Augsburg1–01
- W2 Sep 23H · SV Darmstadt 985–13
- L29 Oct 22A · RB Leipzig0–23
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Oct 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–31
- L25 Aug 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen20 games · scored 39 · conceded 27
6
4
0-15
8
4
16-30
11
9
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
FC St. Pauli21 games · scored 20 · conceded 35
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
9
31-45
4
9
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
