Bundesliga Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 2026 · 14:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
2–1 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 1.77 – 0.88
VfB Stuttgart
  • E. Saliakas 35’
  • D. Sinani 55’ (P)
  • 90’ J. Leweling
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

FC St. Pauli beat VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart entered as clear favourites, but FC St. Pauli won 2–1 through goals from Saliakas and Sinani. VfB Stuttgart replied through a Leweling goal. FC St. Pauli finished with the higher xG (1.77 vs 0.88). On the chances created, VfB Stuttgart deserved more: 0.8 expected points against the 0 points they took.

FC St. Pauli ✓17%
Draw21%
VfB Stuttgart62%

Model vs reality

FC St. Pauli goals
2
Model 1.06 · xG 1.77
VfB Stuttgart goals
1
Model 2.18 · xG 0.88
Total goals
3
Model 3.24 · xG 2.65
Score 2–1
5%
Most likely 1–2 (10%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 63%
Both scored
Yes
Model 58%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchE. SaliakasFC St. Pauli · 1 goal
7.9
  • RefereeBenjamin Brand
  • CoachesA. Blessin · —
  • VenueMillerntor-Stadion
  • Table before kick-offFC St. Pauli 17th · VfB Stuttgart 4th

Timeline

  1. E. Saliakas 1–0Assist Arkadiusz Pyrka
    35’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. ⇄ J. LewelingFor B. El Khannouss
    46’
  4. D. Sinani (pen) 2–0
    55’
  5. D. UndavYellow card · Tripping
    57’
  6. ⇄ L. AssignonFor J. Vagnoman
    69’
  7. ⇄ B. BouananiFor C. Führich
    69’
  8. E. DemirovićYellow card · Roughing
    72’
  9. ⇄ Chema AndrésFor A. Karazor
    85’
  10. ⇄ Jeremy ArevaloFor E. Demirović
    85’
  11. J. Leweling 2–1Assist Jeremy Arevalo
    90’
  12. ⇄ T. HaraFor M. Kaars
    90+5’
  13. ⇄ L. RitzkaFor Arkadiusz Pyrka
    90+5’
  14. Full time · 2–1

Team stats

FC St. Pauli15 shots · 10 in box, 5 outside
VfB Stuttgart8 shots · 6 in box, 2 outside
FC St. PauliVfB Stuttgart
32% Possession 68%
1.77 Expected goals (xG) 0.88
1.98 Expected points (xPts) 0.78
15 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 3
3 Shots off target 3
5 Blocked shots 2
10 Shots inside the box 6
5 Shots outside the box 2
303 Passes 645
73% Pass accuracy 86%
5 Corners 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
6.85 Team rating 6.74

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1

226.7 N. Vasilj(G)
36.7 K. Mets 156.7 Tomoya Ando 256.7 A. Dźwigała
117.2 Arkadiusz Pyrka A↓90’ 76.9 J. Irvine 66.5 J. Sands 27.9★ E. Saliakas
206.7 M. Rasmussen 106.9 D. Sinani
196.5 M. Kaars ↓90’
  • 22N. Vasilj (G)6.7
  • 3K. Mets6.7
  • 15Tomoya Ando6.7
  • 25A. Dźwigała6.7
  • 11Arkadiusz PyrkaA↓90’7.2
  • 7J. Irvine6.9
  • 6J. Sands6.5
  • 2E. Saliakas ★7.9
  • 20M. Rasmussen6.7
  • 10D. Sinani6.9
  • 19M. Kaars↓90’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 21L. Ritzka↑90’
  • 18T. Hara↑90’

Unused: B. Voll, Jannik Thomas Robatsch, F. Stevens, Louis Oppie, Nick Schmidt, A. Ceesay, Romeo Aigbekaen

Coach: A. Blessin

VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1

337.6 A. Nübel(G)
76.9 M. Mittelstädt 37.0 R. Hendriks 297.2 Finn Jeltsch 46.2 J. Vagnoman ↓69’
67.0 A. Stiller 166.7 A. Karazor ↓85’
106.2 C. Führich ↓69’ 266.2 D. Undav 116.3 B. El Khannouss ↓46’
96.7 E. Demirović ↓85’
  • 33A. Nübel (G)7.6
  • 7M. Mittelstädt6.9
  • 3R. Hendriks7.0
  • 29Finn Jeltsch7.2
  • 4J. Vagnoman↓69’6.2
  • 6A. Stiller7.0
  • 16A. Karazor↓85’6.7
  • 10C. Führich↓69’6.2
  • 26D. Undav6.2
  • 11B. El Khannouss↓46’6.3
  • 9E. Demirović↓85’6.7

Substitutes used

  • 18J. Leweling↑46’6.3
  • 27B. Bouanani↑69’6.5
  • 22L. Assignon↑69’6.3
  • 30Chema Andrés↑85’
  • 25Jeremy ArevaloA↑85’

Unused: F. Bredlow, J. Chabot, A. Al Dakhil, P. Stenzel

Player stats

Top rated
E. SaliakasFC St. Pauli7.9
2nd
A. NübelVfB Stuttgart7.6
3rd
Arkadiusz PyrkaFC St. Pauli7.2

FC St. Pauli

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
N. Vasilj G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 59% 32 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
K. Mets D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 85% 27 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
Tomoya Ando 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 73% 26 0 0 0/0 1/2 6.7
A. Dźwigała D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 15 2 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
Arkadiusz Pyrka M 90 0 1 1 (1) 4 82% 22 0 2 1/1 1/2 7.2
J. Irvine M 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 82% 33 0 2 1/1 3/0 6.9
J. Sands M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 77% 31 0 7 0/0 1/1 6.5
E. Saliakas D 90 1 0 1 (1) 1 74% 31 0 0 0/1 0/0 7.9
M. Rasmussen M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 63% 27 2 0 0/0 1/2 6.7
D. Sinani M 90 1 0 3 (3) 2 67% 30 0 0 0/2 1/0 6.9
M. Kaars F 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 80% 20 0 0 0/2 0/1 6.5
L. Ritzka D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
T. Hara F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
A. Nübel G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 80% 30 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.6
M. Mittelstädt D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 76 2 2 0/0 1/2 6.9
R. Hendriks D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 94 2 1 0/0 2/1 7.0
Finn Jeltsch D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 93 1 1 1/1 0/0 7.2
J. Vagnoman D 69 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 35 1 0 1/1 2/1 6.2
A. Stiller M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 102 2 0 1/2 0/1 7.0
A. Karazor M 85 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 49 0 2 0/0 0/1 6.7
C. Führich M 69 0 0 1 (1) 1 76% 33 1 0 2/3 1/0 6.2
D. Undav F 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 63% 27 2 0 1/1 2/0 6.2
B. El Khannouss M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 27 1 1 0/0 0/0 6.3
E. Demirović F 85 0 0 0 (0) 1 73% 11 0 0 1/1 1/3 6.7
J. Leweling F 44 1 0 1 (1) 1 62% 13 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
B. Bouanani M 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 9 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
L. Assignon D 21 0 0 1 (0) 0 83% 12 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
Chema Andrés M 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
Jeremy Arevalo F 5 0 1 0 (0) 1 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.