Bayer Leverkusen
Attack−15%
Defense risk0%
Bayer Leverkusen
4th · 10 pts · 5 played
LWDWW
2–1Full time
SC Freiburg
3rd · 13 pts · 5 played
WWWDW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. SC Freiburg were without Y. Suzuki and J. Beste. Bayer Leverkusen had 2.9 days of rest, SC Freiburg 6.9 and had to travel 343 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel343 kmRest days2.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Bayer Leverkusen64%
Draw19%
SC Freiburg17%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Draw25%
SC Freiburg21%
Bayer Leverkusen63%
Draw19%
SC Freiburg18%
Bayer Leverkusen55%
Draw21%
SC Freiburg24%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
Draw20%
SC Freiburg18%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 73%
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 78
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
79
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
87
AttackIn forecast
63
79
DefenceIn forecast
73
89
Form indexContext
87
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack−20%
Defense risk+47%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenSC Freiburg
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
2.30
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.73
100%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
21.20
ShotsContext
17.20
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
30%
On target shareContext
35%
15.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
73%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.80
Shots allowedContext
8.60
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.40
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
53%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
549
PassesContext
456
480
Accurate passesContext
382
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.16
12.40
FoulsContext
10.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.89
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.60
ShotsContext
13.60
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
35%
On target shareContext
38%
14.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
75%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.60
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.40
BlocksContext
3.70
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
64%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
537
PassesContext
442
472
Accurate passesContext
370
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.12
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.40
FoulsContext
10.80
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
DWWWW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,699 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 89 · 13 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected
SC Freiburg
WWWDW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel343 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 6.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 343 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,699 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez
2F. Medina
12E. Tapsoba
4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández
24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira
30I. Maza
19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
42Keisuke Goto
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −6.1% · Defence line −2.5% of weighted minutes
- MID Christian Kofane Rotation 6.62 Att −2.4% Def −1.5%
- ATT M. Terrier Rotation 6.72 Att −2.5%
- MID Montrell Amare Culbreath Rotation 6.76 Att −1.1% Def −0.7%
- DEF G. Doué Depth 6.20 Def −0.2%
- MID E. Ben Seghir Depth 6.79 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
SC Freiburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −10.3% · Defence line −13.2% of weighted minutes
- MID Y. Suzuki Starter 6.98 Att −10.3% Def −4.5%
- DEF J. Beste Starter 6.83 Def −8.7%
- DEF B. Yılmaz Depth 7.09 Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- SC Freiburg-0.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
SC Freiburg · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Bayer Leverkusen wins3 draws2 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game2.30 – 1.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets10% · 0%
- 7 Mar 2026SC Freiburg3–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 26 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0SC Freiburg
- 4 May 2025SC Freiburg2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 21 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–1SC Freiburg
- 17 Mar 2024SC Freiburg2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 29 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.00 | 10.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.20 | 10.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.46
Red cards0.17league 0.10
Cards 5+28%league 19%
Fouls22.3league 22.9
Penalties0.28league 0.21
Home wins50%league 52%
Bayer Leverkusen2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Oct 24A · Werder Bremen2–21
- W12 Nov 22H · VfB Stuttgart2–02
SC Freiburg6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Mar 26A · FC St. Pauli2–11
- L1 Feb 26A · VfB Stuttgart0–12
- W16 Apr 23A · Werder Bremen2–13
- W6 Nov 22H · 1.FC Köln2–00
- L14 Jan 22A · Borussia Dortmund1–50
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen5 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
SC Freiburg5 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
4
1
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 26 · conceded 13
5
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
8
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
