Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 29 pts · 17 played
LWWLL
1–0Full time
Werder Bremen
14th · 18 pts · 17 played
LLDLD
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 47). Absences weigh more on Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7.8 and had to travel 259 km.
Away travel259 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen64%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen16%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen16%
Bayer Leverkusen64%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen15%
Bayer Leverkusen56%
Draw23%
Werder Bremen21%
Bayer Leverkusen61%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen17%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 51
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenWerder Bremen
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
87
AttackIn forecast
56
79
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenWerder Bremen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
82%
Scored inContext
65%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.76
ShotsContext
11.65
4.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.82
Shots in the boxContext
7.19
64%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.85
11.82
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.06
2.86
BlocksContext
3.88
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
71%
Save rateContext
64%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
598
PassesContext
454
532
Accurate passesContext
372
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.06
FoulsContext
10.06
10.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.18
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
33%
On target shareContext
30%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
65%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.00
BlocksContext
3.10
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
82%
Save rateContext
67%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
571
PassesContext
461
503
Accurate passesContext
379
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.82
8.10
FoulsContext
10.60
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km479 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel259 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 259 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 479 km | 392 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
30I. Maza
21Lucas Vázquez
19E. Poku
7J. Hofmann
14P. Schick
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
23I. Schmidt
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
20R. Schmid
3Y. Sugawara
17M. Grüll
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Werder Bremen+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-3
- Scored
- 2.11
- Conceded
- 1.11
Werder Bremen · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 2.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | L 0–4 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 6–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Points | 28 of 42 · 2.00 per game | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Bayer Leverkusen wins3 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.43 – 1.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 30 Aug 2025Werder Bremen3–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 8 Mar 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–2Werder Bremen
- 26 Oct 2024Werder Bremen2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 14 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–0Werder Bremen
- 25 Nov 2023Werder Bremen0–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 Mar 2023Werder Bremen2–3Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.47 | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 65% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 47% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.12 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 11.72 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 11/17 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 10/17 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 1.53 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 3.94 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 6.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.43 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.78
Red cards0.10league 0.19
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls24.5league 21.2
Penalties0.27league 0.31
Home wins41%league 45%
Bayer Leverkusen7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D17 May 25A · FSV Mainz 052–27
- W3 Feb 24A · SV Darmstadt 982–02
- W8 Oct 22H · FC Schalke 044–01
- L20 Aug 22H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–31
- W23 Apr 22A · SpVgg Greuther Fürth4–10
Werder Bremen7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Apr 25H · FC St. Pauli0–02
- L12 Jan 25A · RB Leipzig2–41
- W29 Sep 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim4–33
- D19 Dec 23H · RB Leipzig1–14
- D5 Nov 23A · VfL Wolfsburg2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen17 games · scored 34 · conceded 25
6
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
8
9
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Werder Bremen17 games · scored 21 · conceded 34
2
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
8
61-75
9
10
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
