Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 63 pts · 24 played
DWWWW
4–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
12th · 25 pts · 24 played
DDLLW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Bayern München had 6.1 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.2 and had to travel 501 km.
Away travel501 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayern München87%
Draw9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4%
Bayern München85%
Draw11%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4%
Bayern München87%
Draw9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4%
Bayern München81%
Draw12%
Borussia Mönchengladbach7%
Bayern München84%
Draw11%
Borussia Mönchengladbach5%
Over 2.5 82%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 66
Team strength
Bayern MünchenBorussia Mönchengladbach
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
96
AttackIn forecast
34
90
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenBorussia Mönchengladbach
3.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
2.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+1.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
58%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
18.33
ShotsContext
11.46
8.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
46%
On target shareContext
36%
12.58
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
69%
Box shareContext
66%
20%
ConversionContext
10%
2.52
OffsidesContext
2.21
9.58
Shots allowedContext
13.79
2.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.30
BlocksContext
3.25
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
68%
Save rateContext
70%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
682
PassesContext
430
615
Accurate passesContext
357
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.08
FoulsContext
10.29
8.58
Fouls sufferedContext
10.58
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
2.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.00
ShotsContext
11.10
8.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
49%
On target shareContext
33%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
67%
Box shareContext
62%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.00
BlocksContext
2.80
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
69%
Save rateContext
78%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
644
PassesContext
436
578
Accurate passesContext
359
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.70
FoulsContext
10.70
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km955 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel501 km738 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 501 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 955 km | 738 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
20T. Bischof
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
10J. Musiala
42Lennart Karl
11N. Jackson
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
7K. Stöger
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
38A. Bolin
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 5–0 A | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 60 of 69 · 2.61 per game | 25 of 69 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Bayern München wins2 draws2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game1.78 – 1.00
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3Bayern München
- 10 May 2025Bayern München2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 11 Jan 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1Bayern München
- 3 Feb 2024Bayern München3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2 Sep 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2Bayern München
- 18 Feb 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach3–2Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.67 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 4.63 | 2.75 | 4.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 54% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.90 | 2.60 | 4.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 4.61 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.91 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 12/22 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.54 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 3.67 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 8/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Bayern München | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 6.90 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.77
Red cards0.18league 0.16
Cards 5+44%league 38%
Fouls23.5league 20.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins47%league 46%
Bayern München7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.0.9 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L6 Apr 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–30
- W8 Oct 23H · SC Freiburg3–01
- W13 May 23H · FC Schalke 046–00
- D12 Mar 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
- L12 Feb 22A · VfL Bochum2–41
Borussia Mönchengladbach8 with this referee
Record1-4-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D17 Jan 26A · Hamburger SV0–02
- L23 Aug 24H · Bayer Leverkusen2–31
- D11 May 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–11
- D2 Mar 24A · FSV Mainz 051–11
- L23 Sep 23H · RB Leipzig0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München24 games · scored 88 · conceded 23
6
3
0-15
17
4
16-30
15
4
31-45
9
2
46-60
15
2
61-75
26
8
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach24 games · scored 27 · conceded 39
3
6
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
9
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
8
61-75
8
8
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
