Bayern München vs FSV Mainz 05 – 14 Dec 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sun, Dec 14 · 16:30 Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München 1st · 37 pts · 13 played WDWWW

2–2Full time

FSV Mainz 05 18th · 6 pts · 13 played DLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 44). Absences weigh more on FSV Mainz 05. Bayern München had 8.1 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8.9 and had to travel 316 km.

Away travel316 kmRest days8.1 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Bayern München87%

Draw9%

FSV Mainz 054%

Expected goals 3.34 – 0.67

Bayern München83%

Draw12%

FSV Mainz 055%

Expected goals 2.86 – 0.63

Bayern München86%

Draw10%

FSV Mainz 054%

Expected goals 3.24 – 0.68

Bayern München82%

Draw12%

FSV Mainz 056%

Expected goals 2.98 – 0.75

Bayern München84%

Draw11%

FSV Mainz 055%

Expected goals 2.95 – 0.61

Over 2.5 76% Both score 47% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (München)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobin Braun

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 8

Team strength

Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05

93 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

96 AttackIn forecast 68

90 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05

3.77 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.85

0.69 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.85

2.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

+1.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

100% Scored inContext 46%

54% Clean sheetsContext 0%

18.23 ShotsContext 10.77

7.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.83

41% On target shareContext 24%

12.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.83

69% Box shareContext 73%

21% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

8.92 Shots allowedContext 15.15

1.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.23

3.55 BlocksContext 4.33

1.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31

74% Save rateContext 63%

66% PossessionIn forecast 48%

688 PassesContext 389

619 Accurate passesContext 295

90% Pass accuracyContext 76%

7.20 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.00 FoulsContext 12.23

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.31

2.31 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.31

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

3.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+1.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.53

100% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.90 ShotsContext 9.80

6.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

38% On target shareContext 26%

13.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

69% Box shareContext 70%

18% ConversionContext 7%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.44

9.70 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

3.13 BlocksContext 4.67

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

80% Save rateContext 73%

64% PossessionIn forecast 45%

674 PassesContext 385

609 Accurate passesContext 290

90% Pass accuracyContext 76%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.70 FoulsContext 14.00

6.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km382 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel316 km446 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayern München	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec	8.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	382 km	446 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

20T. Bischof 21H. Ito 3M. Kim 44J. Stanišić

8L. Goretzka 6J. Kimmich

7S. Gnabry 42Lennart Karl 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

5-4-1

33D. Batz(G)

22N. Veratschnig 48K. Potulski 16S. Bell 21D. da Costa 24Sota Kawasaki

7J. Lee 6K. Sano 15L. Maloney 14W. Bøving

17B. Hollerbach

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayern München Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.17 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayern München+1.1 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
FSV Mainz 05-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 7-0-0
Scored: 4.14
Conceded: 0.57

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Bayern München	FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart	W 5–0 A	L 1–2 A
SC Freiburg	W 6–2 H	L 0–4 A
Bayer Leverkusen	W 3–0 H	L 3–4 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach	W 3–0 A	L 0–1 H
Borussia Dortmund	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	W 3–0 A	L 0–1 A
Werder Bremen	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 H
1899 Hoffenheim	W 4–1 A	D 1–1 H
Hamburger SV	W 5–0 H	L 0–4 A
FC Augsburg	W 3–2 A	W 4–1 A
RB Leipzig	W 6–0 H	L 0–1 H
Points	33 of 33 · 3.00 per game	5 of 33 · 0.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Bayern München wins0 draws3 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game3.13 – 1.63 Over 2.5100% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 0%

26 Apr 2025Bayern München3–0FSV Mainz 05
14 Dec 2024FSV Mainz 052–1Bayern München
9 Mar 2024Bayern München8–1FSV Mainz 05
21 Oct 2023FSV Mainz 051–3Bayern München
22 Apr 2023FSV Mainz 053–1Bayern München
29 Oct 2022Bayern München6–2FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayern München	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	3.77	0.85
Conceded per game	0.69	1.85
Match goals	4.46	2.69	4.01
Over 1.5	100%	69%
Over 2.5	100%	38%	76%
Over 3.5	69%	31%
Both teams scored	46%	46%	47%
Clean sheets	54%	0%
Failed to score	0%	54%
Games	13	13

	Bayern München	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	3.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.70	2.10
Match goals	4.20	3.10	4.01
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	76%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayern München	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.46	5.17
Corners conceded	4.08	4.08
Match total	9.54	9.25	9.77
Over 8.5	54% 7/13	50% 6/12
Over 9.5	54% 7/13	50% 6/12
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	33% 4/12
Cards
Cards	2.31	2.77
Opponent cards	1.62	1.69
Match total	3.93	4.46	4.10
Over 3.5	54% 7/13	69% 9/13
Over 4.5	46% 6/13	38% 5/13

	Bayern München	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.89
Corners conceded	3.90	3.78
Match total	9.20	8.67	9.77
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.50
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	3.70	4.60	4.10
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Braun 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 3.94

Red cards0.38league 0.21

Cards 5+50%league 42%

Fouls20.4league 21.2

Penalties0.50league 0.32

Home wins50%league 48%

Bayern München

No previous matches with this referee.

FSV Mainz 05

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.