Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sun, Dec 14 · 16:30 Allianz Arena, München
Bayern München 1st · 37 pts · 13 played
2–2Full time
FSV Mainz 05 18th · 6 pts · 13 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Bayern München86.8%fair odds 1.15
Draw9.2%fair odds 10.82
FSV Mainz 054.0%fair odds 25.12
Expected goals3.34 – 0.67total 4.01
Likeliest score3–011.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FSV Mainz 05

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Bayern München ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 →0123456+
02.01.00.40.10.00.00.0
15.84.31.40.30.10.00.0
210.16.82.30.50.10.00.0
311.37.62.50.60.10.00.0
49.46.32.10.50.10.00.0
56.34.21.40.30.10.00.0
6+6.24.21.40.30.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 3–011.3%8.89
  • 2–010.1%9.89
  • 4–09.4%10.65
  • 3–17.6%13.23
  • 2–16.8%14.73
  • 4–16.3%15.85
  • 5–06.3%15.94
  • 1–05.8%17.13
  • 1–14.3%23.36
  • 5–14.2%23.73

Winning margin

50.9% Bayern München by 3+ fair 1.96
20.1% Bayern München by 2 fair 4.97
15.7% Bayern München by 1 fair 6.37
9.2% Draw fair 10.82
3.0% FSV Mainz 05 by 1 fair 33.51
0.8% FSV Mainz 05 by 2 fair 122.82
0.2% FSV Mainz 05 by 3+ fair 546.69

Goal distribution

Total goals

2%0
7%1
15%2
19%3
20%4
37%5+

Bayern München goals

4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
43%4+

FSV Mainz 05 goals

51%0
34%1
12%2
3%3
0%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Bayern München win 86.8% 83.9% +2.9 pp
Draw 9.2% 11.4% -2.1 pp
FSV Mainz 05 win 4.0% 4.7% -0.7 pp
Over 2.5 76.3% 69.0% +7.3 pp
Both teams score 47.4% 43.7% +3.7 pp
Expected goals Bayern München 3.34 2.95 +0.39
Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 0.67 0.61 +0.06

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Bayern München win86.8%1.15
  • Draw9.2%10.82
  • FSV Mainz 05 win4.0%25.12
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw96.0%1.04
  • Double chance Bayern München or FSV Mainz 0590.8%1.10
  • Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw13.2%7.56
  • Draw no bet Bayern München95.6%1.05
  • Draw no bet FSV Mainz 054.4%22.79

Goals

  • Over 0.598.0%1.02
  • Over 1.591.1%1.10
  • Over 2.576.3%1.31
  • Over 3.556.8%1.76
  • Over 4.537.3%2.68
  • Under 1.58.9%11.28
  • Under 2.523.7%4.23
  • Under 3.543.2%2.32

Both teams to score

  • Yes47.4%2.11
  • No52.6%1.90
  • Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
  • Bayern München win and yes37.7%2.65
  • Draw and yes7.2%13.86
  • FSV Mainz 05 win and yes2.5%40.62

Team goals

  • Bayern München over 0.596.5%1.04
  • Bayern München over 1.584.6%1.18
  • Bayern München over 2.564.8%1.54
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 0.548.9%2.04
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 1.514.6%6.85
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 2.53.1%32.49
  • Bayern München clean sheet51.1%1.96
  • FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet3.5%28.18
  • Bayern München win to nil49.1%2.04
  • FSV Mainz 05 win to nil1.5%65.79

Handicap

  • Bayern München −1.571.1%1.41
  • Bayern München −2.550.9%1.96
  • FSV Mainz 05 +1.528.9%3.46
  • FSV Mainz 05 +2.549.1%2.04
  • FSV Mainz 05 −1.51.0%100.29
  • Bayern München +1.599.0%1.01

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored124 Favourite won56.5% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.551 Over 2.5 called right62.1% BTTS called right57.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1538.1%46.7%
40–50%4145.1%41.5%
50–60%3354.8%57.6%
60–70%2265.2%77.3%
70–80%1174.3%72.7%
80%+290.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 105 of 124 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.53440.5346
Avg chance given to result44.2%43.6%
Favourite won59.0%59.0%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 105 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 124 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.