Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 28 pts · 10 played
WWWWD
6–2Full time
SC Freiburg
10th · 13 pts · 10 played
DDLDW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 59). Absences weigh more on Bayern München. Bayern München had 14 days of rest, SC Freiburg 13 and had to travel 277 km.
Away travel277 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bayern München77%
Draw15%
SC Freiburg8%
Bayern München75%
Draw16%
SC Freiburg9%
Bayern München78%
Draw14%
SC Freiburg8%
Bayern München70%
Draw18%
SC Freiburg12%
Bayern München74%
Draw17%
SC Freiburg9%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 88
Team strength
Bayern MünchenSC Freiburg
93
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
96
AttackIn forecast
63
90
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenSC Freiburg
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+1.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.60
ShotsContext
11.10
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
44%
On target shareContext
32%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
68%
20%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.38
8.50
Shots allowedContext
11.30
2.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.38
BlocksContext
3.30
1.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
72%
Save rateContext
63%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
663
PassesContext
414
595
Accurate passesContext
339
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.21
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.50
FoulsContext
9.10
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.82
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.60
ShotsContext
11.60
7.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
44%
On target shareContext
37%
12.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
69%
Box shareContext
69%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
2.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.88
BlocksContext
3.90
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
80%
Save rateContext
73%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
640
PassesContext
398
571
Accurate passesContext
325
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.20
FoulsContext
10.50
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel277 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 277 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,010 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
20T. Bischof
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
8L. Goretzka
45A. Pavlović
14L. Díaz
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
37M. Rosenfelder
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
9L. Höler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
3.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.20
SC Freiburg · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 4–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 19 of 21 · 2.71 per game | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
7 Bayern München wins1 draws0 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game2.63 – 0.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2025SC Freiburg1–2Bayern München
- 1 Sep 2024Bayern München2–0SC Freiburg
- 1 Mar 2024SC Freiburg2–2Bayern München
- 8 Oct 2023Bayern München3–0SC Freiburg
- 8 Apr 2023SC Freiburg0–1Bayern München
- 16 Oct 2022Bayern München5–0SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.70 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Bayern München | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.20 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.88 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.00 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Bayern München | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.89 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.10 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 4.12
Red cards0.09league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 43%
Fouls20.2league 22.2
Penalties0.19league 0.36
Home wins41%league 45%
Bayern München10 with this referee
Record7-3-0
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W10 May 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–01
- D30 Nov 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–12
- W20 Apr 24A · Union Berlin5–10
- D1 Mar 24A · SC Freiburg2–22
- W27 May 23A · 1.FC Köln2–10
SC Freiburg12 with this referee
Record4-5-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Apr 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- D8 Mar 25H · RB Leipzig0–00
- L14 Jan 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–41
- D8 Dec 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–11
- L26 Oct 24A · RB Leipzig1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München10 games · scored 35 · conceded 6
3
0-15
8
1
16-30
8
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
61-75
8
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 32 · conceded 6
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
9
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
