Bayern München vs Union Berlin – 18 Sep 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Fri, Sep 18 · 19:30 Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München 4th · 7 pts · 3 played WDW

7–0Full time

Union Berlin 16th · 1 pts · 3 played DLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Bayern München had 5.1 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and had to travel 505 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel505 kmRest days5.1 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2

Bayern München91%

Draw6%

Union Berlin3%

Expected goals 3.98 – 0.71

Bayern München87%

Draw9%

Union Berlin4%

Expected goals 3.18 – 0.56

Bayern München91%

Draw6%

Union Berlin3%

Expected goals 3.94 – 0.72

Bayern München87%

Draw9%

Union Berlin5%

Expected goals 3.55 – 0.80

Bayern München90%

Draw7%

Union Berlin3%

Expected goals 3.72 – 0.70

Over 2.5 85% Both score 50% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (München)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 67%

Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 65

Team strength

Bayern München

Union Berlin

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

96 AttackIn forecast 42

90 DefenceIn forecast 41

85 Form indexContext 26

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern München

Union Berlin

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.33

2.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

0.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.37

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

67% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

21.33 ShotsContext 14.67

6.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.00

31% On target shareContext 41%

13.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.33

63% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

6.67 Shots allowedContext 17.33

2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.67

2.50 BlocksContext 4.67

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00

80% Save rateContext 60%

71% PossessionIn forecast 50%

761 PassesContext 397

680 Accurate passesContext 294

89% Pass accuracyContext 74%

7.25 Team ratingContext 6.64

10.00 FoulsContext 11.33

10.33 Fouls sufferedContext 10.33

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

90% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.30 ShotsContext 14.00

7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.22

40% On target shareContext 40%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.22

63% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.29

10.50 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.75 BlocksContext 4.29

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

72% Save rateContext 58%

69% PossessionIn forecast 50%

676 PassesContext 402

605 Accurate passesContext 305

89% Pass accuracyContext 76%

7.16 Team ratingContext 6.79

8.10 FoulsContext 10.10

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München WDWW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,689 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 85 · 10 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

W13 SepA · SV Elversberg2–12.4 xPts
W10 SepH · Bodo/Glimt5–02.5 xPts
D5 SepA · FC Schalke 040–02.5 xPts
W28 AugH · VfB Stuttgart5–12.3 xPts

Union Berlin DLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel505 km944 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 26 · 1 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
D29 AugH · Eintracht Frankfurt3–31.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayern München	Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Sep	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 11 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	505 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,689 km	944 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	21.8	21.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

19A. Davies 4J. Tah 2D. Upamecano 44J. Stanišić

45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 10J. Musiala 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Union Berlin Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1F. Rønnow(G)

15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 14L. Querfeld 28C. Trimmel

20M. Aebischer 8R. Khedira

13A. Schäfer 11W. Jeong 19J. Haberer

29E. Latte Lath

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayern München Absences are shown before kick-off

Union Berlin Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayern München+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Union Berlin-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 1.00

Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Bayern München	Union Berlin
FC Schalke 04	D 0–0 A	L 1–3 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

7 Bayern München wins3 draws0 Union Berlin wins

Goals per game2.90 – 0.70 Over 2.570% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

21 Mar 2026Bayern München4–0Union Berlin
8 Nov 2025Union Berlin2–2Bayern München
15 Mar 2025Union Berlin1–1Bayern München
2 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0Union Berlin
20 Apr 2024Union Berlin1–5Bayern München
24 Jan 2024Bayern München1–0Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayern München	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	1.33
Conceded per game	0.67	3.33
Match goals	3.00	4.67	4.69
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	100%	85%
Over 3.5	33%	100%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	3	3

	Bayern München	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	3.40	1.70
Conceded per game	1.10	2.20
Match goals	4.50	3.90	4.69
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	90%	85%
Over 3.5	70%	80%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayern München	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	3.33
Corners conceded	3.00	6.00
Match total	12.00	9.33	11.42
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.33
Opponent cards	2.33	2.33
Match total	3.33	4.66	3.23
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3

	Bayern München	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	4.90
Corners conceded	4.11	5.70
Match total	9.89	10.60	11.42
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.60
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	3.10	3.30	3.23
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.15

Red cards0.22league 0.11

Cards 5+42%league 19%

Fouls22.6league 22.5

Penalties0.32league 0.11

Home wins34%league 52%

Bayern München3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Feb 25A · VfB Stuttgart3–13
D6 Oct 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–31
W12 Jan 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–01

Union Berlin1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L6 Apr 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.