Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 41 pts · 15 played
WWWDW
8–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
14th · 15 pts · 15 played
LDWWL
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 44). Bayern München usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayern München had 21 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 22.1 and had to travel 480 km.
Away travel480 kmRest days21 · 22.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Bayern München86%
Draw10%
VfL Wolfsburg4%
Bayern München83%
Draw12%
VfL Wolfsburg5%
Bayern München86%
Draw10%
VfL Wolfsburg4%
Bayern München80%
Draw13%
VfL Wolfsburg7%
Bayern München83%
Draw12%
VfL Wolfsburg5%
Over 2.5 75%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 50
Team strength
Bayern MünchenVfL Wolfsburg
93
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
96
AttackIn forecast
50
90
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenVfL Wolfsburg
3.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.53
0.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.87
2.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+1.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
100%
Scored inContext
80%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
18.93
ShotsContext
11.60
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.27
42%
On target shareContext
37%
13.07
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
70%
Box shareContext
62%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.78
8.53
Shots allowedContext
14.27
1.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.55
BlocksContext
4.07
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
75%
Save rateContext
65%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
711
PassesContext
400
642
Accurate passesContext
320
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.53
FoulsContext
10.73
8.87
Fouls sufferedContext
9.87
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.40
ShotsContext
10.50
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
38%
On target shareContext
43%
13.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
71%
Box shareContext
65%
18%
ConversionContext
15%
3.11
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.43
BlocksContext
4.11
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
79%
Save rateContext
63%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
690
PassesContext
400
620
Accurate passesContext
317
90%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.70
FoulsContext
10.70
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel480 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 22.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 480 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
44J. Stanišić
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
20T. Bischof
45A. Pavlović
14L. Díaz
42Lennart Karl
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
2K. Fischer
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
26S. Kumbedi
27M. Arnold
32M. Svanberg
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
24C. Eriksen
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-0
- Scored
- 3.88
- Conceded
- 0.75
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 5–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | L 3–4 H |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 4–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 5–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 6–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 38 of 42 · 2.71 per game | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
7 Bayern München wins1 draws0 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game2.75 – 1.13
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 0%
- 18 Jan 2025Bayern München3–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 25 Aug 2024VfL Wolfsburg2–3Bayern München
- 12 May 2024Bayern München2–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 20 Dec 2023VfL Wolfsburg1–2Bayern München
- 5 Feb 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–4Bayern München
- 14 Aug 2022Bayern München2–0VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.67 | 1.53 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.73 | 1.87 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 73% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 73% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Bayern München | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 3.70 | 3.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.08 | 7.43 | |
| Match total | 9.54 | 11.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.66 | 3.60 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Bayern München | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 7.56 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 10.67 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.10 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.87
Red cards0.10league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 41%
Fouls24.7league 21.2
Penalties0.28league 0.33
Home wins40%league 44%
Bayern München3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 Jan 25H · VfL Wolfsburg3–22
- W14 Sep 24A · Holstein Kiel6–11
- W16 Mar 24A · SV Darmstadt 985–20
VfL Wolfsburg7 with this referee
Record3-3-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L18 Jan 25A · Bayern München2–33
- D26 Oct 24A · FC St. Pauli0–03
- W20 Apr 24H · VfL Bochum1–04
- D5 Nov 23H · Werder Bremen2–24
- W24 Jan 23A · Hertha BSC5–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München15 games · scored 55 · conceded 11
5
2
0-15
10
2
16-30
11
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
18
4
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg15 games · scored 23 · conceded 28
6
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 31 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
8
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
12
2
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
5
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
