Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 53). Bayern München usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayern München had 6.2 days of rest, Werder Bremen 6.2 and had to travel 583 km.
Away travel583 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayern München78%
Draw14%
Werder Bremen8%
Bayern München75%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen9%
Bayern München78%
Draw14%
Werder Bremen8%
Bayern München72%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen11%
Bayern München75%
Draw16%
Werder Bremen9%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 48
Team strength
Bayern München
Werder Bremen
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
96
AttackIn forecast
56
90
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenWerder Bremen
4.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
2.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.06
+2.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.00
ShotsContext
11.75
9.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
53%
On target shareContext
47%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
64%
Box shareContext
63%
25%
ConversionContext
17%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.75
Shots allowedContext
14.25
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.75
1.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
70%
Save rateContext
44%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
620
PassesContext
458
555
Accurate passesContext
381
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.42
Team ratingContext
6.55
11.00
FoulsContext
10.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+1.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.20
ShotsContext
13.00
7.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
44%
On target shareContext
39%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
63%
Box shareContext
73%
22%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.89
9.10
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.56
BlocksContext
4.20
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
83%
Save rateContext
71%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
617
PassesContext
469
554
Accurate passesContext
387
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.34
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.00
FoulsContext
9.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km467 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel583 km530 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 583 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 467 km | 530 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
27K. Laimer
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
23S. Boey
20T. Bischof
8L. Goretzka
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
13K. Hein(G)
27F. Agu
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
3Y. Sugawara
14S. Lynen
6J. Stage
7S. Mbangula
18Cameron Puertas
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 5.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Werder Bremen · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Bayern München wins0 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game3.33 – 0.50
Over 2.583%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 7 Feb 2025Bayern München3–0Werder Bremen
- 21 Sep 2024Werder Bremen0–5Bayern München
- 21 Jan 2024Bayern München0–1Werder Bremen
- 18 Aug 2023Werder Bremen0–4Bayern München
- 6 May 2023Werder Bremen1–2Bayern München
- 8 Nov 2022Bayern München6–1Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.25 | 4.50 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Bayern München | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.25 | 4.50 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.50 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Bayern München | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.63 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.70 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.28
Red cards0.17league 0.33
Cards 5+52%league 50%
Fouls22.3league 22.8
Penalties0.23league 0.53
Home wins38%league 42%
Bayern München5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Apr 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim4–01
- L14 Dec 24A · FSV Mainz 051–22
- W13 Apr 24H · 1.FC Köln2–00
- W24 Jan 24H · Union Berlin1–02
- D3 Sep 22A · Union Berlin1–12
Werder Bremen2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Feb 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–32
- W5 Feb 23A · VfB Stuttgart2–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München4 games · scored 18 · conceded 3
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Werder Bremen4 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 37 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
61-75
8
3
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
