Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München78.5%fair odds 1.27
Draw13.7%fair odds 7.32
Werder Bremen7.9%fair odds 12.74
Expected goals2.88 – 0.85total 3.72
Likeliest score2–010.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.0%10.02
- 3–09.6%10.45
- 2–18.5%11.81
- 3–18.1%12.32
- 4–06.9%14.54
- 1–06.6%15.09
- 1–16.2%16.12
- 4–15.8%17.14
- 5–04.0%25.28
- 2–23.6%27.83
Winning margin
38.1%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 2.62
21.0%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.76
19.3%
Bayern München by 1
fair 5.17
13.7%
Draw
fair 7.32
5.5%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 18.23
1.8%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 54.64
0.5%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 186.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
8%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
32%5+
Bayern München goals
6%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
32%4+
Werder Bremen goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 78.5% | 75.2% | +3.3 pp |
| Draw | 13.7% | 16.0% | -2.3 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 7.9% | 8.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 71.9% | 64.0% | +7.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.3% | 49.7% | +4.6 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.88 | 2.53 | +0.35 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 0.85 | 0.77 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win78.5%1.27
- Draw13.7%7.32
- Werder Bremen win7.9%12.74
- Double chance Bayern München or draw92.1%1.09
- Double chance Bayern München or Werder Bremen86.3%1.16
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw21.5%4.65
- Draw no bet Bayern München90.9%1.10
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen9.1%11.00
Goals
- Over 0.597.3%1.03
- Over 1.588.9%1.12
- Over 2.571.9%1.39
- Over 3.551.1%1.96
- Over 4.531.7%3.15
- Under 1.511.1%9.02
- Under 2.528.1%3.55
- Under 3.548.9%2.04
Both teams to score
- Yes54.3%1.84
- No45.7%2.19
- Yes and over 2.548.1%2.08
- Bayern München win and yes38.4%2.60
- Draw and yes10.9%9.15
- Werder Bremen win and yes4.9%20.25
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.594.4%1.06
- Bayern München over 1.578.1%1.28
- Bayern München over 2.554.8%1.82
- Werder Bremen over 0.557.2%1.75
- Werder Bremen over 1.520.9%4.79
- Werder Bremen over 2.55.5%18.30
- Bayern München clean sheet42.8%2.34
- Werder Bremen clean sheet5.6%17.73
- Bayern München win to nil40.1%2.50
- Werder Bremen win to nil2.9%34.33
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.559.2%1.69
- Bayern München −2.538.1%2.62
- Werder Bremen +1.540.8%2.45
- Werder Bremen +2.561.9%1.62
- Werder Bremen −1.52.4%42.26
- Bayern München +1.597.6%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won47.2%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right69.4%
BTTS called right63.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.1% | 22.2% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.3% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.3% | 33.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5445 | 0.5272 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.5% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.