Benfica vs Casa Pia – 9 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 20:30 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 24 pts · 10 played DWDWW

2–2Full time

Casa Pia 16th · 8 pts · 10 played DLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 23). Benfica had 8 days of rest, Casa Pia 8.1 and had to travel.

Rest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Benfica77%

Draw15%

Casa Pia7%

Expected goals 2.51 – 0.66

Benfica78%

Draw15%

Casa Pia7%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.69

Benfica77%

Draw15%

Casa Pia7%

Expected goals 2.51 – 0.66

Benfica71%

Draw19%

Casa Pia10%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.74

Benfica78%

Draw15%

Casa Pia7%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.69

Over 2.5 61% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 58

Team strength

Benfica

Casa Pia

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

81 AttackIn forecast 13

81 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Casa Pia

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

90% Scored inContext 60%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.60 ShotsContext 9.00

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

39% On target shareContext 33%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 4.89

63% Box shareContext 53%

14% ConversionContext 12%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.17

9.40 Shots allowedContext 13.20

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.10 BlocksContext 3.60

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

91% Save rateContext 54%

60% PossessionIn forecast 46%

494 PassesContext 329

426 Accurate passesContext 254

86% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.90 FoulsContext 15.50

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

60% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.00 ShotsContext 9.00

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 4.89

57% Box shareContext 53%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.17

9.10 Shots allowedContext 13.20

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.00 BlocksContext 3.60

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

74% Save rateContext 54%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

458 PassesContext 329

391 Accurate passesContext 254

85% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.00 FoulsContext 15.50

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km622 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Casa Pia

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Casa Pia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	622 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	19.9	19.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 4António Silva 44Tomás Araújo 17A. Dedić

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

8F. Aursnes 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

14V. Pavlidis

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1P. Sequeira(G)

43David Sousa 6José Fonte 27Kaique Rocha

72Gaizka Larrazabal 8Rafael Brito 42S. Pérez 18André Geraldes

7K. Nsona 90Cassiano 29J. Livolant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Casa Pia+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 2.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-0
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 0.60

Casa Pia · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Benfica	Casa Pia
Arouca	W 5–0 H	W 2–0 A
FC Porto	D 0–0 A	L 0–4 A
AVS	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 A
Estrela	W 1–0 A	L 3–5 H
Points	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Benfica wins1 draws1 Casa Pia wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.67 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%

25 Jan 2025Casa Pia3–1Benfica
17 Aug 2024Benfica3–0Casa Pia
17 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–1Benfica
28 Oct 2023Benfica1–1Casa Pia
4 Feb 2023Benfica3–0Casa Pia
13 Aug 2022Casa Pia0–1Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.10
Conceded per game	0.40	2.20
Match goals	2.50	3.30	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

	Benfica	Casa Pia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.10
Conceded per game	0.40	2.20
Match goals	2.50	3.30	3.16
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	3.78
Corners conceded	3.11	5.11
Match total	8.89	8.89	9.13
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	3.10
Opponent cards	2.90	2.70
Match total	5.60	5.80	5.48
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

	Benfica	Casa Pia	League
Corners
Corners won	6.38	3.78
Corners conceded	3.38	5.11
Match total	9.76	8.89	9.13
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	3.10
Opponent cards	2.70	2.70
Match total	5.10	5.80	5.48
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.91league 5.21

Red cards0.40league 0.28

Cards 5+72%league 65%

Fouls29.0league 27.8

Penalties0.38league 0.47

Home wins40%league 35%

Benfica5 with this referee

Record5-0-0 Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 0

W19 Apr 25A · Guimaraes3–04
W19 Dec 24A · Nacional2–04
W22 Apr 24A · Farense3–12
W19 Jan 24H · Boavista2–03
W19 Aug 23H · Estrela2–03

Casa Pia5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.4.2 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L8 Aug 25H · Sporting CP0–24
D22 Sep 24A · GIL Vicente1–15
W2 Dec 23H · Portimonense1–03
L25 Feb 23A · Arouca0–24
W29 Jan 23H · Santa Clara2–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.