Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 31). Benfica had 6 days of rest, Estoril 6.9 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Benfica74%
Draw17%
Estoril9%
Benfica75%
Draw16%
Estoril9%
Benfica74%
Draw17%
Estoril9%
Benfica68%
Draw20%
Estoril12%
Benfica75%
Draw16%
Estoril9%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 13
Team strength
Benfica
Estoril
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
81
AttackIn forecast
21
81
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaEstoril
2.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
0.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
94%
Scored inContext
69%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
14.81
ShotsContext
11.94
5.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
39%
On target shareContext
34%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.69
63%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.53
8.50
Shots allowedContext
11.63
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
2.31
BlocksContext
2.43
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
83%
Save rateContext
62%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
494
PassesContext
408
423
Accurate passesContext
327
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.88
FoulsContext
12.63
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.13
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.90
ShotsContext
11.90
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
35%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
64%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.50
7.50
Shots allowedContext
10.30
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
2.30
BlocksContext
2.11
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
81%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
472
PassesContext
423
402
Accurate passesContext
343
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.80
FoulsContext
12.40
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km641 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 641 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 16.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
44Tomás Araújo
17A. Dedić
20Richard Ríos
16Manu
10H. Sudakov
18L. Barreiro
25G. Prestianni
14V. Pavlidis
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
99R. Guitane
14Y. Begraoui
9A. Marqués
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Estoril · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Arouca | W 5–0 H | W 4–3 H |
| FC Porto | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| AVS | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Alverca | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estrela | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 48 · 2.25 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
6 Benfica wins0 draws0 Estoril wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 3 May 2025Estoril1–2Benfica
- 23 Dec 2024Benfica3–0Estoril
- 10 Mar 2024Benfica3–1Estoril
- 7 Oct 2023Estoril0–1Benfica
- 23 Apr 2023Benfica1–0Estoril
- 6 Nov 2022Estoril1–5Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.06 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.63 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 3.31 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 56% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 56% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Benfica | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.50 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 5.07 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 9.78 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 4/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 3/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 5.26 | 5.07 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 94% 15/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 10/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Benfica | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 10.89 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.90 | 5.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 5.11
Red cards0.08league 0.30
Cards 5+46%league 61%
Fouls28.3league 27.2
Penalties0.15league 0.43
Home wins38%league 37%
Benfica1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Aug 25H · Tondela3–02
Estoril4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D11 Aug 25H · Estrela1–14
- D16 Mar 25A · Arouca1–11
- W5 Jan 25A · Estrela4–21
- D25 Aug 24H · GIL Vicente0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica15 games · scored 28 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
6
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Estoril16 games · scored 27 · conceded 26
3
6
0-15
3
2
16-30
8
4
31-45
7
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
3
5
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
2
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
