Benfica vs FC Porto – 8 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 25 Sun, Mar 8 · 18:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 58 pts · 24 played DWWWW

2–2Full time

FC Porto 1st · 65 pts · 24 played LDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Benfica. Benfica had 5.9 days of rest, FC Porto 9 and had to travel 273 km.

Away travel273 kmRest days5.9 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Benfica46%

Draw29%

FC Porto25%

Expected goals 1.38 – 0.96

Benfica46%

Draw26%

FC Porto28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.16

Benfica46%

Draw29%

FC Porto25%

Expected goals 1.38 – 0.96

Benfica39%

Draw30%

FC Porto31%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.07

Benfica46%

Draw28%

FC Porto25%

Expected goals 1.40 – 0.97

Over 2.5 41% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 96

Team strength

Benfica

FC Porto

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

81 AttackIn forecast 74

81 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

FC Porto

2.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.96

0.58 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.33

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

0.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.53

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

92% Scored inContext 96%

50% Clean sheetsContext 71%

16.21 ShotsContext 14.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

37% On target shareContext 38%

10.46 Shots in the boxContext 9.54

65% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.27

7.92 Shots allowedContext 9.08

2.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.05

2.25 BlocksContext 3.33

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

81% Save rateContext 90%

59% PossessionIn forecast 56%

485 PassesContext 451

413 Accurate passesContext 384

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.75 FoulsContext 13.13

15.38 Fouls sufferedContext 12.08

2.08 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.56

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.80 ShotsContext 12.80

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

38% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

65% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.56

9.70 Shots allowedContext 9.20

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.22

2.80 BlocksContext 3.30

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.88

71% Save rateContext 79%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

439 PassesContext 423

365 Accurate passesContext 359

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.86

8.40 FoulsContext 13.60

16.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km631 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel273 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Mar	9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	273 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	631 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 44Tomás Araújo 17A. Dedić

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

21A. Schjelderup 27Rafa 25G. Prestianni

14V. Pavlidis

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

52Martim Fernandes 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

77O. Pietuszewski 27D. Gül 11Pepê

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 2.33points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.67

FC Porto · Away 2.75points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 11-0-1
Scored: 1.92
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Benfica	FC Porto
GIL Vicente	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
AVS	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Santa Clara	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Alverca	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	W 3–0 A
Tondela	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 A
Estrela	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 H
Rio Ave	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A
Estoril	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
SC Braga	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Famalicao	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Moreirense	W 4–0 A	W 2–1 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Nacional	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Casa Pia	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 AW 4–0 H
Guimaraes	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Arouca	W 5–0 H	W 3–1 HW 4–0 A
Points	57 of 69 · 2.48 per game	64 of 69 · 2.78 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Benfica wins1 draws2 FC Porto wins

Goals per game1.57 – 1.29 Over 2.557% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 29%

5 Oct 2025FC Porto0–0Benfica
6 Apr 2025FC Porto1–4Benfica
10 Nov 2024Benfica4–1FC Porto
3 Mar 2024FC Porto5–0Benfica
29 Sep 2023Benfica1–0FC Porto
7 Apr 2023Benfica1–2FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	2.13	1.96
Conceded per game	0.58	0.33
Match goals	2.71	2.29	2.33
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	50%	41%
Over 3.5	25%	17%
Both teams scored	50%	29%	47%
Clean sheets	50%	71%
Failed to score	8%	4%
Games	24	24

	Benfica	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.60
Conceded per game	0.60	0.60
Match goals	2.70	2.20	2.33
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	41%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	6.52	5.38
Corners conceded	2.39	3.24
Match total	8.91	8.62	9.20
Over 8.5	52% 12/23	52% 11/21
Over 9.5	39% 9/23	33% 7/21
Over 10.5	26% 6/23	24% 5/21
Cards
Cards	2.17	2.08
Opponent cards	2.83	2.92
Match total	5.00	5.00	5.16
Over 3.5	71% 17/24	79% 19/24
Over 4.5	63% 15/24	58% 14/24

	Benfica	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.89
Corners conceded	2.80	3.44
Match total	9.80	9.33	9.20
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.80
Opponent cards	3.20	3.00
Match total	5.20	4.80	5.16
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 96 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.46league 4.83

Red cards0.21league 0.26

Cards 5+47%league 59%

Fouls25.8league 26.9

Penalties0.26league 0.45

Home wins42%league 41%

Benfica15 with this referee

Record9-3-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

W1 Nov 25A · Guimaraes3–04
D12 Sep 25H · Santa Clara1–11
D10 May 25H · Sporting CP1–14
W6 Apr 25A · FC Porto4–11
W2 Feb 25A · Estrela3–22

FC Porto12 with this referee

Record7-2-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W22 Dec 25A · Alverca3–01
L6 Apr 25H · Benfica1–43
D7 Feb 25H · Sporting CP1–13
W6 Oct 24H · SC Braga2–12
W3 Mar 24H · Benfica5–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.