Benfica vs Rio Ave – 23 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Tue, Sep 23 · 20:15 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 13 pts · 5 played WWWDW

1–1Full time

Rio Ave 16th · 3 pts · 5 played DDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 24). Benfica had 3.1 days of rest, Rio Ave 4 and had to travel 294 km.

Away travel294 kmRest days3.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Benfica79%

Draw15%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.58 – 0.64

Benfica79%

Draw14%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.67

Benfica79%

Draw15%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.58 – 0.64

Benfica73%

Draw18%

Rio Ave10%

Expected goals 2.30 – 0.72

Benfica79%

Draw14%

Rio Ave7%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.67

Over 2.5 63% Both score 44% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 13

Team strength

Benfica

Rio Ave

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

81 AttackIn forecast 18

81 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Rio Ave

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

100% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.60 ShotsContext 11.80

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

37% On target shareContext 39%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

66% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 12%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.20 Shots allowedContext 15.80

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

2.40 BlocksContext 3.20

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

94% Save rateContext 65%

64% PossessionIn forecast 46%

529 PassesContext 383

462 Accurate passesContext 318

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.80 FoulsContext 13.00

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

90% Scored inContext 80%

70% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.50 ShotsContext 11.20

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

32% On target shareContext 41%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

61% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.88

10.10 Shots allowedContext 14.90

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.80 BlocksContext 3.50

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

87% Save rateContext 67%

58% PossessionIn forecast 47%

496 PassesContext 357

427 Accurate passesContext 291

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.83

13.20 FoulsContext 12.70

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rio Ave

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel294 km68 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Rio Ave
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	294 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	68 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 17A. Dedić

10H. Sudakov 5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

9F. Ivanović 14V. Pavlidis 8F. Aursnes

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1C. Miszta(G)

4J. Panzo 32J. Brabec 23F. Petrasso

77O. Richards 10B. Aguilera 5A. Ntoi 17M. Vrousai

18D. Špikić 28Marc Gual 80O. Pohlmann

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rio Ave+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Rio Ave · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Benfica wins1 draws0 Rio Ave wins

Goals per game3.00 – 1.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

16 Mar 2025Rio Ave2–3Benfica
27 Oct 2024Benfica5–0Rio Ave
17 May 2024Rio Ave1–1Benfica
14 Jan 2024Benfica4–1Rio Ave
2 Apr 2023Rio Ave0–1Benfica
8 Oct 2022Benfica4–2Rio Ave

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.40
Conceded per game	0.40	2.40
Match goals	2.40	3.80	3.23
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	63%
Over 3.5	0%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	44%
Clean sheets	60%	0%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	5	5

	Benfica	Rio Ave	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.40
Conceded per game	0.40	2.40
Match goals	2.40	3.80	3.23
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	63%
Over 3.5	0%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	44%
Clean sheets	60%	0%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	2.60
Corners conceded	3.80	6.60
Match total	8.40	9.20	8.87
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	5.00	4.00	4.96
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	60% 3/5

	Benfica	Rio Ave	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.50
Corners conceded	3.70	6.00
Match total	8.70	9.50	8.87
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	2.10
Match total	4.60	4.10	4.96
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.46league 4.92

Red cards0.00league 0.19

Cards 5+31%league 58%

Fouls26.2league 27.9

Penalties0.15league 0.42

Home wins54%league 34%

Benfica

No previous matches with this referee.

Rio Ave2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Apr 25H · Santa Clara1–11
L22 Feb 25A · Estoril1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.